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Integration of synoptic and hydrodynamic monthly air temperature forecasts

The results of experiments on the integration of synoptic and hydrodynamic forecasts of monthly air temperature for the northwestern part of Eurasia for the period of 2011–2015 are presented. The comprehensive comparison of skill scores of individual and integrated forecasts is provided. It is demon...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Russian meteorology and hydrology 2017-08, Vol.42 (8), p.485-493
Main Authors: Vil’fand, R. M., Martazinova, V. F., Tsepelev, V. Yu, Khan, V. M., Mironicheva, N. P., Eliseev, G. V., Ivanova, E. K., Tishchenko, V. A., Utkuzova, D. N.
Format: Article
Language:English
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Summary:The results of experiments on the integration of synoptic and hydrodynamic forecasts of monthly air temperature for the northwestern part of Eurasia for the period of 2011–2015 are presented. The comprehensive comparison of skill scores of individual and integrated forecasts is provided. It is demonstrated that during the cold season hydrodynamic forecasts have the highest skills among the other forecasts. It is revealed that empirical methods are characterized by the forecast skill increase in summer and by its decrease in winter and during the period of spring transformation of atmospheric circulation. In most cases the integration of diverse methods allows combining their benefits and improving the resultant forecast skill. The synchrony was detected in the forecast skill variations. It is shown that the forecast skill mainly depends on the persistence of macrocirculation patterns.
ISSN:1068-3739
1934-8096
DOI:10.3103/S1068373917080015