Long-range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using data mining and statistical approaches

This paper presents a hybrid model to better predict Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The algorithm considers suitable techniques for processing dense datasets. The proposed three-step algorithm comprises closed itemset generation-based association rule mining for feature selection, cluster membershi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Theoretical and applied climatology 2017-10, Vol.130 (1-2), p.19-33
Main Authors: H, Vathsala, Koolagudi, Shashidhar G.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Algorithms
Aquatic Pollution
Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate science
Climatology
Data mining
Data processing
Drought
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Flood predictions
Mathematical models
Monsoon rainfall
Monsoons
Original Paper
Rain
Rainfall
Rainfall forecasting
Statistical prediction
Summer
Summer monsoon
Waste Water Technology
Water Management
Water Pollution Control
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Summary:This paper presents a hybrid model to better predict Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The algorithm considers suitable techniques for processing dense datasets. The proposed three-step algorithm comprises closed itemset generation-based association rule mining for feature selection, cluster membership for dimensionality reduction, and simple logistic function for prediction. The application of predicting rainfall into flood, excess, normal, deficit, and drought based on 36 predictors consisting of land and ocean variables is presented. Results show good accuracy in the considered study period of 37years (1969–2005).
ISSN:0177-798X
1434-4483
DOI:10.1007/s00704-016-1862-2