Optimal surveillance against foot‐and‐mouth disease: the case of bulk milk testing in Australia

Previous foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks and simulation‐based analyses suggest substantial payoffs from detecting an incursion early. However, no economic measures for early detection have been analysed in an optimising framework. We investigate the use of bulk milk testing (BMT) for active s...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics 2017-10, Vol.61 (4), p.515-538
Main Authors: Kompas, Tom, Ha, Pham Van, Nguyen, Hoa Thi Minh, East, Iain, Roche, Sharon, Garner, Graeme
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Australia
bulk milk testing
dynamic optimisation
Economic analysis
Epidemics
Foot & mouth disease
foot‐and‐mouth disease
Milk
Optimization
Outbreaks
Simulation
Surveillance
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Previous foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks and simulation‐based analyses suggest substantial payoffs from detecting an incursion early. However, no economic measures for early detection have been analysed in an optimising framework. We investigate the use of bulk milk testing (BMT) for active surveillance against an FMD incursion in Australia. We find that BMT can be justified, but only when the FMD entry probability is sufficiently high or the cost of BMT is low. However, BMT is well suited for post‐outbreak surveillance, to shorten the length of time and size of an epidemic and to facilitate an earlier return to market.
ISSN:1364-985X
1467-8489
DOI:10.1111/1467-8489.12224