Modeling and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach

Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In pa...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Demography 2017-10, Vol.54 (5), p.1921-1946
Main Authors: Boonen, Tim J., Li, Hong
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Child
Child, Preschool
Databases, Factual
Demography
Economic development
Economic forecasting
Economic growth
Economic models
Economics
Europe - epidemiology
Female
Forecasting
Forecasting techniques
GDP
Geography
Gross Domestic Product
Gross Domestic Product - statistics & numerical data
HEALTH AND THE LIFE COURSE
Humans
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Life Expectancy
Life span
Male
Mathematical models
Medicine/Public Health
Middle Aged
Modelling
Models, Econometric
Mortality
Mortality - trends
Per capita
Population Economics
Populations
Power
Principal Component Analysis
Russia - epidemiology
Social Sciences
Socioeconomic Factors
Socioeconomics
Sociology
Stochastic Processes
Sweden - epidemiology
Trends
Young Adult
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Description
Summary:Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In particular, we extend the Li and Lee model (Li and Lee 2005) by including economic growth, represented by the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, to capture the common mortality trend for a group of populations with similar socioeconomic conditions. We find that our proposed model provides a better in-sample fit and an out-of-sample forecast performance. Moreover, it generates lower (higher) forecasted period life expectancy for countries with high (low) GDP per capita than the Li and Lee model.
ISSN:0070-3370
1533-7790
DOI:10.1007/s13524-017-0610-2