Predictive Evaluation of Ship Collision Risk Using the Concept of Probability Flow

This paper presents a semianalytical approach for evaluating the collision risk between two moving surface ships. The concept of probability flow is introduced to develop an analytically sound problem formulation, which allows for an accurate estimation of collision probability considering time-vary...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:IEEE journal of oceanic engineering 2017-10, Vol.42 (4), p.836-845
Main Authors: Park, Jeonghong, Kim, Jinwhan
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Collision avoidance
Collision dynamics
collision probability
Collision risk
Components
Computation
Computer simulation
Evaluation
Feasibility studies
Marine vehicles
Probability density function
probability flow
Probability theory
Risk
Safety
Ships
Simulation
Traffic
Traffic accidents & safety
Trajectory
Trajectory analysis
trajectory uncertainty
Uncertainty
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Summary:This paper presents a semianalytical approach for evaluating the collision risk between two moving surface ships. The concept of probability flow is introduced to develop an analytically sound problem formulation, which allows for an accurate estimation of collision probability considering time-varying ship trajectory uncertainties. For efficient computation, the flow of collision probability is separated into diffusion and drift components. These two probability components are combined to obtain the instantaneous collision probability, and this instantaneous probability is integrated in time to quantify the expected risk of collision. To demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach, traffic simulations are performed for several representative maritime traffic scenarios and the obtained simulation results are discussed.
ISSN:0364-9059
1558-1691
DOI:10.1109/JOE.2016.2614870