Vulnerability of field crops to midcentury temperature changes and yield effects in the Southwestern USA

Increased temperatures in the Southwestern USA will impact future crop production via multiple pathways. We used four methods to provide an illustrative analysis of midcentury temperature impacts to eight field crops. By midcentury, cropland area thermally suitable for maize cultivation is projected...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climatic change 2018-06, Vol.148 (3), p.403-417
Main Authors: Elias, Emile, Marklein, Alison, Abatzoglou, John T., Dialesandro, Jake, Brown, Joel, Steele, Caiti, Rango, Albert, Steenwerth, Kerri
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adaptation
Agricultural land
Agricultural production
Area
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Corn
Cotton
Crop production
Crop yield
Crops
Cultivation
Daily temperatures
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Future temperatures
Germplasm
Heat
Heat stress
Heat tolerance
Maximum sustainable yield
Reduction
Target recognition
Temperature
Temperature changes
Temperature effects
Vulnerability
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Summary:Increased temperatures in the Southwestern USA will impact future crop production via multiple pathways. We used four methods to provide an illustrative analysis of midcentury temperature impacts to eight field crops. By midcentury, cropland area thermally suitable for maize cultivation is projected to decrease, while area suitable for cotton cultivation expands northward and nearly doubles in extent. The increase in area exposed to daily temperatures > 35 °C was highest for oat and maize. Estimates of yield reduction from heat stress for both maize and cotton indicate that historically, SW heat stress reduced cotton yield by 26% and maize yield by 18% compared to potential yield. By midcentury, we predict yield reduction from heat stress will reduce cotton and maize yields by 37 and 27%, respectively, compared to potential yield. Our results contradict the notion that the warmest counties cultivating field crops will be the most impacted. Rather, future temperature, total crop area and crop sensitivity contribute to more complex county-level impacts. Identification of representative target environments under future temperature regimes can inform development of farm-based networks to evaluate new crop germplasm with increased heat tolerance and viable adaptation and management strategies to respond effectively to future temperatures.
ISSN:0165-0009
1573-1480
DOI:10.1007/s10584-017-2108-8