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Sensitivity and requirement of improvements of four soybean crop simulation models for climate change studies in Southern Brazil
Crop growth models have many uncertainties that affect the yield response to climate change. Based on that, the aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of crop models to systematic changes in climate for simulating soybean attainable yield in Southern Brazil. Four crop models were used to...
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Published in: | International journal of biometeorology 2018-05, Vol.62 (5), p.823-832 |
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description | Crop growth models have many uncertainties that affect the yield response to climate change. Based on that, the aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of crop models to systematic changes in climate for simulating soybean attainable yield in Southern Brazil. Four crop models were used to simulate yields: AQUACROP, MONICA, DSSAT, and APSIM, as well as their ensemble. The simulations were performed considering changes of air temperature (0, + 1.5, + 3.0, + 4.5, and + 6.0 °C), [CO
2
] (380, 480, 580, 680, and 780 ppm), rainfall (− 30, − 15, 0, + 15, and + 30%), and solar radiation (− 15, 0, + 15), applied to daily values. The baseline climate was from 1961 to 2014, totalizing 53 crop seasons. The crop models simulated a reduction of attainable yield with temperature increase, reaching 2000 kg ha
−1
for the ensemble at + 6 °C, mainly due to shorter crop cycle. For rainfall, the yield had a higher rate of reduction when it was diminished than when rainfall was increased. The crop models increased yield variability when solar radiation was changed from − 15 to + 15%, whereas [CO
2
] rise resulted in yield gains, following an asymptotic response, with a mean increase of 31% from 380 to 680 ppm. The models used require further attention to improvements in optimal and maximum cardinal temperature for development rate; runoff, water infiltration, deep drainage, and dynamic of root growth; photosynthesis parameters related to soil water availability; and energy balance of soil-plant system to define leaf temperature under elevated CO
2
. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s00484-017-1483-1 |
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2
] (380, 480, 580, 680, and 780 ppm), rainfall (− 30, − 15, 0, + 15, and + 30%), and solar radiation (− 15, 0, + 15), applied to daily values. The baseline climate was from 1961 to 2014, totalizing 53 crop seasons. The crop models simulated a reduction of attainable yield with temperature increase, reaching 2000 kg ha
−1
for the ensemble at + 6 °C, mainly due to shorter crop cycle. For rainfall, the yield had a higher rate of reduction when it was diminished than when rainfall was increased. The crop models increased yield variability when solar radiation was changed from − 15 to + 15%, whereas [CO
2
] rise resulted in yield gains, following an asymptotic response, with a mean increase of 31% from 380 to 680 ppm. The models used require further attention to improvements in optimal and maximum cardinal temperature for development rate; runoff, water infiltration, deep drainage, and dynamic of root growth; photosynthesis parameters related to soil water availability; and energy balance of soil-plant system to define leaf temperature under elevated CO
2
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2
] (380, 480, 580, 680, and 780 ppm), rainfall (− 30, − 15, 0, + 15, and + 30%), and solar radiation (− 15, 0, + 15), applied to daily values. The baseline climate was from 1961 to 2014, totalizing 53 crop seasons. The crop models simulated a reduction of attainable yield with temperature increase, reaching 2000 kg ha
−1
for the ensemble at + 6 °C, mainly due to shorter crop cycle. For rainfall, the yield had a higher rate of reduction when it was diminished than when rainfall was increased. The crop models increased yield variability when solar radiation was changed from − 15 to + 15%, whereas [CO
2
] rise resulted in yield gains, following an asymptotic response, with a mean increase of 31% from 380 to 680 ppm. The models used require further attention to improvements in optimal and maximum cardinal temperature for development rate; runoff, water infiltration, deep drainage, and dynamic of root growth; photosynthesis parameters related to soil water availability; and energy balance of soil-plant system to define leaf temperature under elevated CO
2
.</description><subject>Agricultural production</subject><subject>Air temperature</subject><subject>Animal Physiology</subject><subject>Biological and Medical Physics</subject><subject>Biophysics</subject><subject>Brazil</subject><subject>Carbon dioxide</subject><subject>Carbon Dioxide - analysis</subject><subject>Climate Change</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Climate studies</subject><subject>Computer Simulation</subject><subject>Crop growth</subject><subject>Crops</subject><subject>Crops, Agricultural - growth & development</subject><subject>Crops, Agricultural - metabolism</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Energy balance</subject><subject>Energy balance of soil</subject><subject>Environment</subject><subject>Environmental Health</subject><subject>Glycine max - growth & development</subject><subject>Glycine max - metabolism</subject><subject>Infiltration</subject><subject>Meteorology</subject><subject>Models, Theoretical</subject><subject>Moisture content</subject><subject>Original Paper</subject><subject>Photosynthesis</subject><subject>Plant growth</subject><subject>Plant Physiology</subject><subject>Plant Transpiration</subject><subject>Rain</subject><subject>Rainfall</subject><subject>Reduction</subject><subject>Runoff</subject><subject>Sensitivity analysis</subject><subject>Soil dynamics</subject><subject>Soil temperature</subject><subject>Soil water</subject><subject>Solar radiation</subject><subject>Soybeans</subject><subject>Sunlight</subject><subject>Temperature</subject><subject>Temperature effects</subject><subject>Temperature requirements</subject><subject>Temperature rise</subject><subject>Water availability</subject><subject>Water infiltration</subject><issn>0020-7128</issn><issn>1432-1254</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2018</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp1kMFu3CAURVGVqjOZ9gOyiZCydgoYA14mUdJWitRF2jXC-NEwsvEM4JGmq3x6mE4SZdMVeuLc93QPQmeUXFJC5NdECFe8IlRWlKu6oh_QkvKaVZQ1_AQtCWGkkpSpBTpNaU1KRgn5CS1YS1uhiFiipwcIyWe_83mPTehxhO3sI4wQMp4c9uMmTrt_YzrMbpojTtO-AxOwjdMGJz_Og8l-CnicehhSYSK2gx9NBmwfTfgDOOW595CwD_hhmvMjxICvo_nrh8_oozNDgi8v7wr9vrv9dfO9uv_57cfN1X1la8ly1TlWO9ZAKcMdt9S1rWKW94wLB4pa0smutrJWvbC96mljm04IKIQRnSWmXqGL497SZztDynpdqoRyUtNWEiW5aGih6JEq1VKK4PQmliJxrynRB-f66FwX5_rgXB8y5y-b526E_i3xKrkA7Aik8lVsxHen_7v1GZlZj5g</recordid><startdate>20180501</startdate><enddate>20180501</enddate><creator>Battisti, R.</creator><creator>Sentelhas, P. 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C.</au><au>Boote, K. J.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Sensitivity and requirement of improvements of four soybean crop simulation models for climate change studies in Southern Brazil</atitle><jtitle>International journal of biometeorology</jtitle><stitle>Int J Biometeorol</stitle><addtitle>Int J Biometeorol</addtitle><date>2018-05-01</date><risdate>2018</risdate><volume>62</volume><issue>5</issue><spage>823</spage><epage>832</epage><pages>823-832</pages><issn>0020-7128</issn><eissn>1432-1254</eissn><abstract>Crop growth models have many uncertainties that affect the yield response to climate change. Based on that, the aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of crop models to systematic changes in climate for simulating soybean attainable yield in Southern Brazil. Four crop models were used to simulate yields: AQUACROP, MONICA, DSSAT, and APSIM, as well as their ensemble. The simulations were performed considering changes of air temperature (0, + 1.5, + 3.0, + 4.5, and + 6.0 °C), [CO
2
] (380, 480, 580, 680, and 780 ppm), rainfall (− 30, − 15, 0, + 15, and + 30%), and solar radiation (− 15, 0, + 15), applied to daily values. The baseline climate was from 1961 to 2014, totalizing 53 crop seasons. The crop models simulated a reduction of attainable yield with temperature increase, reaching 2000 kg ha
−1
for the ensemble at + 6 °C, mainly due to shorter crop cycle. For rainfall, the yield had a higher rate of reduction when it was diminished than when rainfall was increased. The crop models increased yield variability when solar radiation was changed from − 15 to + 15%, whereas [CO
2
] rise resulted in yield gains, following an asymptotic response, with a mean increase of 31% from 380 to 680 ppm. The models used require further attention to improvements in optimal and maximum cardinal temperature for development rate; runoff, water infiltration, deep drainage, and dynamic of root growth; photosynthesis parameters related to soil water availability; and energy balance of soil-plant system to define leaf temperature under elevated CO
2
.</abstract><cop>Berlin/Heidelberg</cop><pub>Springer Berlin Heidelberg</pub><pmid>29196806</pmid><doi>10.1007/s00484-017-1483-1</doi><tpages>10</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5768-4501</orcidid></addata></record> |
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subjects | Agricultural production Air temperature Animal Physiology Biological and Medical Physics Biophysics Brazil Carbon dioxide Carbon Dioxide - analysis Climate Change Climate models Climate studies Computer Simulation Crop growth Crops Crops, Agricultural - growth & development Crops, Agricultural - metabolism Earth and Environmental Science Energy balance Energy balance of soil Environment Environmental Health Glycine max - growth & development Glycine max - metabolism Infiltration Meteorology Models, Theoretical Moisture content Original Paper Photosynthesis Plant growth Plant Physiology Plant Transpiration Rain Rainfall Reduction Runoff Sensitivity analysis Soil dynamics Soil temperature Soil water Solar radiation Soybeans Sunlight Temperature Temperature effects Temperature requirements Temperature rise Water availability Water infiltration |
title | Sensitivity and requirement of improvements of four soybean crop simulation models for climate change studies in Southern Brazil |
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