Application of Gumbel I and Monte Carlo methods to assess seismic hazard in and around Pakistan

A proper assessment of seismic hazard is of considerable importance in order to achieve suitable building construction criteria. This paper presents probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in and around Pakistan (23° N–39° N; 59° E–80° E) in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA). Ground motion is...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of seismology 2018-05, Vol.22 (3), p.575-588
Main Authors: Rehman, Khaista, Burton, Paul W., Weatherill, Graeme A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aseismic buildings
Asymptotic methods
Building construction
Computer simulation
Construction
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Earthquake construction
Extreme values
Geological hazards
Geophysics/Geodesy
Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences
Ground motion
Hazard assessment
Hydrogeology
Monte Carlo simulation
Original Article
Probability
Seismic activity
Seismic hazard
Seismology
Statistical methods
Structural Geology
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Summary:A proper assessment of seismic hazard is of considerable importance in order to achieve suitable building construction criteria. This paper presents probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in and around Pakistan (23° N–39° N; 59° E–80° E) in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA). Ground motion is calculated in terms of PGA for a return period of 475 years using a seismogenic-free zone method of Gumbel’s first asymptotic distribution of extreme values and Monte Carlo simulation. Appropriate attenuation relations of universal and local types have been used in this study. The results show that for many parts of Pakistan, the expected seismic hazard is relatively comparable with the level specified in the existing PGA maps.
ISSN:1383-4649
1573-157X
DOI:10.1007/s10950-017-9723-8