Probabilistic assessment of volcanic hazard to radioactive waste repositories in Japan; intersection by a dike from a nearby composite volcano

Geologic hazards such as volcanism must be assessed when evaluating potential sites for the geologic disposal of high-level radioactive waste. The Japanese islands comprise one of the more volcanically active regions on Earth and the risk of volcanism to a geologic repository is being evaluated as p...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geology (Boulder) 2001-03, Vol.29 (3), p.255-258
Main Authors: Perry, Frank V, Valentine, Greg A, Desmarais, Emily K, WoldeGabriel, Giday
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
acidic composition
analog simulation
Asia
Colorado
dikes
Environmental geology
Far East
geologic hazards
Geology
high-level waste
igneous and metamorphic rocks
intrusions
Japan
mafic composition
Monte Carlo analysis
Petrology
probability
radioactive waste
Radioactive wastes
risk assessment
Saguache County Colorado
San Juan volcanic field
spatial distribution
statistical analysis
stratovolcanoes
Summer Coon
theoretical models
underground disposal
United States
volcanic risk
volcanism
Volcanoes
waste disposal
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Summary:Geologic hazards such as volcanism must be assessed when evaluating potential sites for the geologic disposal of high-level radioactive waste. The Japanese islands comprise one of the more volcanically active regions on Earth and the risk of volcanism to a geologic repository is being evaluated as part of the Japanese high-level radioactive waste-disposal program. One hazard that is being evaluated as part of volcanic risk assessment is the possible intersection of a repository by a dike, if a composite volcano were to form near a repository during the long (100 k.y.) performance period of the repository. In this paper we use the characteristics of a well-exposed radial dike system at the Summer Coon volcano in Colorado to define Monte Carlo simulations that estimate the probability of a dike intersection of a repository as a function of volcano distance, dike length and density, and repository area. The models indicate that the probability of intersection declines rapidly as a function of distance from a volcano, as dike density decreases due to the radial dike geometry. The probability of intersection for a mafic dike set with shorter average length declines more rapidly than that of a silicic dike set with longer average length. However, mafic dikes have a higher probability of intersecting a repository close to a volcano (
ISSN:0091-7613
1943-2682
DOI:10.1130/0091-7613(2001)029<0255:PAOVHT>2.0.CO;2