Patterns of technology life cycles: stochastic analysis based on patent citations

Patent analysis has been considered as an effective means of estimating phases of a technology life cycle. However, previous studies have not considered the dynamic and idiosyncratic aspects of a technology's progression since they were based on deterministic methods, mainly fitting s- or doubl...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Technology analysis & strategic management 2017-01, Vol.29 (1), p.53-67
Main Authors: Lee, Changyong, Kim, Juram, Noh, Meansun, Woo, Han-Gyun, Gang, Kwangwook
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Citation analysis
Citations
Cluster analysis
hidden Markov model
Life cycle analysis
Life cycle assessment
Life cycle engineering
Life cycles
Markov chains
Patent applications
patent citations
Patterns of technology life cycles
Phases
Progressions
Stochasticity
Technology
Technology assessment
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Summary:Patent analysis has been considered as an effective means of estimating phases of a technology life cycle. However, previous studies have not considered the dynamic and idiosyncratic aspects of a technology's progression since they were based on deterministic methods, mainly fitting s- or double s-shaped curves to patent application counts. Moreover, previous methods cannot be executed at the individual patent level. We propose a stochastic technology life cycle analysis to trace the phases of a technology's progression based on patent citations and identify the patterns of technology life cycles at the individual patent level. At the heart of the proposed approach are a hidden Markov model to estimate the probability of a system being at a certain hidden state from observation and cluster analysis to group a set of objects according to their similarities. A case study of patents about laser technology in lithography is presented.
ISSN:0953-7325
1465-3990
DOI:10.1080/09537325.2016.1194974