A case study of possible future summer convective precipitation over the UK and Europe from a regional climate projection

• Published in: International journal of climatology 2018-04, Vol.38 (5), p.2314-2324
• Main Authors: Gadian, Alan M., Blyth, Alan M., Bruyere, Cindy L., Burton, Ralph R., Done, James M., Groves, James, Holland, Greg, Mobbs, Stephen D., Pozo, Jutta Thielen‐del, Tye, Mari R., Warner, James L.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Case studies; Climate change; Climate change causes; Climate models; Computer simulation; Convection; Convective precipitation; Dry periods; Electric power generation; Greenhouse gases; Hydrologic data; Parameterization; Pollution; Precipitation; Precipitation data; Precipitation estimation; Precipitation patterns; Precipitation rate; Rainfall; Regional Climate; Regional climates; Resolution; Summer; Summer precipitation; Turbine engines; Turbines; Wind; Wind power; Wind turbines; Winds
• ISSN: 0899-8418; 1097-0088
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.5336

This article examines the changes in summer convective precipitation over Europe using a convection‐permitting model. It concludes that future average precipitation rate per event increases, dry periods extend and wet events shorten. Convection‐permitting solutions capture about ten times as many short heavy precipitation events as convection parameterized simulations, and both convection approaches show approximately 20% increase in their contribution to precipitation. Summer (JJA): changes in dry spell duration, for the high resolution ∼O(3 km), domain, d02, calculations plot. The changes are produced by subtracting the 1990–1995 from the 2031–2036 average values at each pixel. ABSTRACT Climate change caused by green house gas emissions is now following the trend of rapid warming consistent with a RCP8.5 forcing. Climate models are still unable to represent the mesoscale convective processes that occur at resolutions ∼O(3 km) and are not capable of resolving precipitation patterns in time and space with sufficient accuracy to represent convection. In this article, the UK Met Office precipitation observations are compared with the simulations for the period 1990–1995 followed by a simulation of a near‐future period 2031–2036 for a regional nested weather model. The convection‐permitting model, resolution ∼O(3 km), provides a good correspondence to the observational precipitation data and demonstrates the importance of explicit convection for future summer precipitation estimates. The UK summer precipitation is reduced slightly (∼10%) for 2031–2036 and there is no evidence of an increase in the peak maximum hourly precipitation magnitude. A similar pattern is observed over the whole European inner model domain. The results using the Kain–Fritsch convective parameterization scheme at a resolution ∼O(12 km) in the outer domain increase summer precipitation by ∼10% for the UK. The average precipitation rate per event increases, dry periods extend and wet periods shorten. As part of the change, 10‐m winds of