Intensified influence of the ENSO Modoki on boreal summer tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific since the early 1990s

ABSTRACT This study presents the inter‐decadal intensified impact of the ENSO Modoki (ENM) on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) since the early 1990s. We find that this intensified impact may be largely attributed to the inter‐decadal change of the spatio‐temporal va...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of climatology 2018-04, Vol.38 (S1), p.e1258-e1265
Main Authors: Liu, Yong, Chen, Guanghua
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Anomalies
Atmospheric circulation
Cyclones
El Nino
El Nino phenomena
El Nino-Southern Oscillation event
ENSO Modoki
Hurricanes
intensified influence
Sea surface
Sea surface temperature
Southern Oscillation
Surface temperature
Temporal variability
Temporal variations
Tropical climate
Tropical cyclones
WNP tropical cyclone
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Summary:ABSTRACT This study presents the inter‐decadal intensified impact of the ENSO Modoki (ENM) on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) since the early 1990s. We find that this intensified impact may be largely attributed to the inter‐decadal change of the spatio‐temporal variability of the ENM, which includes an increasing period and expansive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly over the central Pacific after the early 1990s. Because of the inter‐decadal change of the ENM, especially the expansive SST pattern, the response of large‐scale atmospheric circulation was enhanced and had expanded northwards and westwards since the early 1990s, which has led to significant TC genesis anomalies over a large fraction of the WNP. The spatial changes of the ENM may possibly be modulated by the inter‐decadal SST change over the Pacific. Regressed TGF anomalies (contour, amplified by ten times, red areas are for positive anomalies and blue for negative) over the WNP against the EMI during (a) 1950–2011, (c) PRE (1950–1990), and (d) POST (1991–2011). (b) Twenty‐one year running correlation between EMI and the regional mean TGF over the WNP (black), SCS (red dotted), and SEWNP (blue dotted). Stippling in (a), (c) and (d) denotes for anomalies significant beyond 90% confidence level. The black (blue) rectangle in (a), (c) and (d) represents the domain for SCS (SEWNP). The horizontal dotted lines in (b) display the 90 and 95% confidence levels for the correlation coefficients, respectively.
ISSN:0899-8418
1097-0088
DOI:10.1002/joc.5347