On the relationship between Indian Ocean sea surface temperature variability and tropical cyclogenesis in the southwest Pacific

• Published in: International journal of climatology 2018-04, Vol.38 (S1), p.e774-e795
• Main Authors: Magee, Andrew D., Verdon‐Kidd, Danielle C.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Climate < 2. Scale; Climate Variability; Clustering; Cyclogenesis; Cyclones; Disaster management; Disasters; El Nino; El Nino phenomena; El Nino-Southern Oscillation event; ENSO; Environmental changes; Environmental conditions; Environmental impact; Humidity; Hurricanes; Indian Ocean SST variability; Migration; Natural disasters; Oceans; Profiles; Regions; Relative humidity; Sea surface; Sea surface temperature; Sea surface temperature variability; Severe weather < 3. Physical phenomenon; Southern Oscillation; Southwest Pacific; Statistical analysis; Surface temperature; Temperature variability; Temporal variability; Temporal variations; Tropical climate; Tropical Cyclogenesis; Tropical Cyclone; Tropical cyclones; Variability; Vertical wind shear; Vorticity; Wind shear
• ISSN: 0899-8418; 1097-0088
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.5406

ABSTRACT In the southwest Pacific (SWP) tropical cyclones (TCs) account for 76% of the regions natural disasters and have substantial economic, physical and environmental impacts on people and places. Therefore, information is needed to better understand when and where TCs are likely to occur, as this can aid in preparedness and planning. While there is a well‐established relationship between Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability and tropical cyclogenesis (TC genesis) in the SWP, it does not fully explain the historical spatial and temporal variability observed. Therefore, this study aims to look beyond the Pacific and establish a new relationship between Indian Ocean SST variability and SWP TC genesis. This is achieved by statistically relating indices of Indian Ocean SST variability to SWP TC genesis positions. The physical mechanisms driving these observed relationships are then established by studying changes in the environmental conditions conducive to TC genesis. This analysis shows that Indian Ocean SST variability significantly modulates the clustering of SWP TC genesis, where warmer (cooler) SSTs in the eastern and western regions of the Indian Ocean result in a statistically significant north/east (south/west) migration of TC genesis by up to 950 km. Importantly, this relationship is shown to be consistent when the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO, the dominant Pacific mode) is in an inactive phase (ENSO neutral). Favourable TC genesis parameters including warm SSTs, increased relative humidity, anomalously negative 700 hPa vorticity, anomalously negative and low absolute 200–850 hPa vertical wind shear account for the observed shift in clustering. Furthermore, we show that the combined effect of ENSO/Indian Ocean SST variability results in varying risk profiles for island nations of the region, with the two climate modes either enhancing or suppressing individual impacts. Significantly, the findings from this study provide an opportunity for meteorological agencies to improve seasonal SWP TC outlooks. TC genesis, KDE contours and MCC for positive/negative phases of IOD E, IOD W and II during ENSO neutral conditions (NDJFMA). TC genesis, KDE contours and MCC for ENSO neutral seasons is also included for reference (bold frame).