Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California

Mediterranean climate regimes are particularly susceptible to rapid shifts between drought and flood—of which, California’s rapid transition from record multi-year dryness between 2012 and 2016 to extreme wetness during the 2016–2017 winter provides a dramatic example. Projected future changes in su...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature climate change 2018-05, Vol.8 (5), p.427-433
Main Authors: Swain, Daniel L., Langenbrunner, Baird, Neelin, J. David, Hall, Alex
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
704/106/35
704/106/694
704/106/694/2786
704/242
706/2805
Anthropogenic factors
Climate
Climate Change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Climate models
Computer simulation
Drought
Earth
Earth and Environmental Science
Environment
Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice
Flood control
Floods
Hydrologic cycle
Hydrological cycle
Hydrology
Mean precipitation
Mediterranean climate
Moisture content
Precipitation
Volatility
Water storage
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Summary:Mediterranean climate regimes are particularly susceptible to rapid shifts between drought and flood—of which, California’s rapid transition from record multi-year dryness between 2012 and 2016 to extreme wetness during the 2016–2017 winter provides a dramatic example. Projected future changes in such dry-to-wet events, however, remain inadequately quantified, which we investigate here using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble of climate model simulations. Anthropogenic forcing is found to yield large twenty-first-century increases in the frequency of wet extremes, including a more than threefold increase in sub-seasonal events comparable to California’s ‘Great Flood of 1862’. Smaller but statistically robust increases in dry extremes are also apparent. As a consequence, a 25% to 100% increase in extreme dry-to-wet precipitation events is projected, despite only modest changes in mean precipitation. Such hydrological cycle intensification would seriously challenge California’s existing water storage, conveyance and flood control infrastructure. California recently experienced a rapid shift from multi-year drought to abundant rainfall. A large ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the frequency of extreme wet-to-dry precipitation events will increase by 25% to 100% across California due to anthropogenic forcing.
ISSN:1758-678X
1758-6798
DOI:10.1038/s41558-018-0140-y