High-resolution multi-model projections of onshore wind resources over Portugal under a changing climate

We present a detailed evaluation of wind energy density (WED) over Portugal, based on the EURO-CORDEX database of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Most RCMs showed reasonable accuracy in reproducing the observed near-surface wind speed. The climatological patterns of WED dis...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Theoretical and applied climatology 2019-04, Vol.136 (1-2), p.347-362
Main Authors: Nogueira, Miguel, Soares, Pedro M. M., Tomé, Ricardo, Cardoso, Rita M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
21st century
Alternative energy sources
Analysis
Annual variations
Anomalies
Aquatic Pollution
Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Atmospheric Sciences
Autumn
Climate
Climate change
Climate models
Climate science
Climatology
Coastal zone
Computer simulation
Datasets
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Evaluation
Flux density
Heterogeneity
High resolution
Interannual variability
Original Paper
Orography
Power resources
Regional climate models
Regional climates
Regions
Renewable energy
Resolution
Seasonal variations
Seasonality
Spatial variations
Spring
Spring (season)
Summer
Surface wind
Terrain
Trends
Waste Water Technology
Water Management
Water Pollution Control
Wind power
Wind power plants
Wind speed
Winter
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Description
Summary:We present a detailed evaluation of wind energy density (WED) over Portugal, based on the EURO-CORDEX database of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Most RCMs showed reasonable accuracy in reproducing the observed near-surface wind speed. The climatological patterns of WED displayed large sub-regional heterogeneity, with higher values over coastal regions and steep orography. Subsequently, we investigated the future changes of WED throughout the twenty-first century, considering mid- and end-century periods, and two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). On the yearly average, the multi-model ensemble WED changes were below 10% (15%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). However, the projected WED anomalies displayed strong seasonality, dominated by low positive values in summer (
ISSN:0177-798X
1434-4483
DOI:10.1007/s00704-018-2495-4