An Analysis of the Relationship Between Foreign Trade and Macroeconomic Performance: Evidence from Brazil

• Published in: Journal of economic & management perspectives 2017-06, Vol.11 (2), p.695-705
• Main Authors: Ambrosio, Rogério, Filho, Elmo Tambosi, Batista, Ricardo, Cappelloza, Alexandre, Garcia, Fabio Gallo
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 20th century; Decades; Econometrics; Economic growth; Economic models; Exports; Foreign exchange rates; GDP; Gross Domestic Product; Industrial development; International trade; Macroeconomics; Productivity; Regression analysis; Tariffs; Trade liberalization; World War I
• ISSN: 2523-5338; 2523-5338

The present study looked at the relationship between indicators of the Brazilian international trade, measured here by the volume of exports and imports, and the variables GDP, Exchange Rate and SELIC Rate, in the period from January 2004 to December 2014. Its objective was to understand the relationships between these variables for the purpose of elaborating forecast models. It was an exploratory study with a quantitative approach, applying Multiple Linear Regression, calculated by the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. The models showed good predictive capacity, however, some explanatory variables presented signs contrary to the econometric model of reference, besides problems of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation, which may signal the omission of important variables. Despite the results, both the Impots and Exports predictive models were satisfactory for the accomplishment of forecasts. It is suggested that new studies contemplate other models and functional forms that support lagged variables and even endogenous effects to better predict the behavior of the studied variables.