Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S, s) Approach

In this paper we derive a model of aggregate investment that builds from the lumpy microeconomic behavior of firms facing stochastic fixed adjustment costs. Instead of the standard sharp (S, s) bands, firms' adjustment policies take the form of a probability of adjustment (adjustment hazard) th...

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Published in:Econometrica 1999-07, Vol.67 (4), p.783-826
Main Authors: Caballero, Ricardo J., Engel, Eduardo M. R. A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
adjustment costs
adjustment hazard
aggregation
Applications
Capital investments
Capital stocks
Cost allocation
Cost estimates
Cost functions
Costs
Econometrics
Exact sciences and technology
Forecasting models
Forecasting standards
heterogeneity
Inference from stochastic processes
time series analysis
Insurance, economics, finance
Investment
Investments
lumpiness
Manufacturing
Market disequilibrium
Mathematics
Microeconomic modeling
Microeconomics
nonlinear time series
Probability and statistics
Random variables
Sciences and techniques of general use
Statistics
Stochastic models
Studies
Time series
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Engel, Eduardo M. R. A.
description In this paper we derive a model of aggregate investment that builds from the lumpy microeconomic behavior of firms facing stochastic fixed adjustment costs. Instead of the standard sharp (S, s) bands, firms' adjustment policies take the form of a probability of adjustment (adjustment hazard) that responds smoothly to changes in firms' capacity gap. The model has appealing aggregation properties, and yields nonlinear aggregate time series processes. The passivity of normal times is, occasionally, more than offset by the brisk response to large accumulated shocks. Using within and out-of-sample criteria, we find that the model performs substantially better than the standard linear models of investment for postwar sectoral U.S. manufacturing equipment and structures investment data.
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source International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS); Wiley; EBSCOhost Econlit with Full Text; JSTOR Archival Journals and Primary Sources Collection; Social Science Premium Collection; ABI/INFORM Global
subjects adjustment costs
adjustment hazard
aggregation
Applications
Capital investments
Capital stocks
Cost allocation
Cost estimates
Cost functions
Costs
Econometrics
Exact sciences and technology
Forecasting models
Forecasting standards
heterogeneity
Inference from stochastic processes
time series analysis
Insurance, economics, finance
Investment
Investments
lumpiness
Manufacturing
Market disequilibrium
Mathematics
Microeconomic modeling
Microeconomics
nonlinear time series
Probability and statistics
Random variables
Sciences and techniques of general use
Statistics
Stochastic models
Studies
Time series
title Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S, s) Approach
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