Survey Article: An Evaluation of the CIA's Analysis of Soviet Economic Performance, 1970-90

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) provides intelligence to the US president, his administration, and the Congress - data collection, analysis, forecasting, and interpretive reporting. The product desired by the administration is, presumably, either the best available estimate or a range of outco...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Comparative economic studies 1993-07, Vol.35 (2), p.33-57
Main Authors: Berkowitz, Daniel M, Berliner, Joseph S, Gregory, Paul R, Linz, Susan J, Millar, James R
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Armed forces
Committees
Comparative analysis
Consumption
Data collection
Defense industry
Economic conditions
Economic forecasts
Economic reform
Economics
Economics and Finance
Estimates
Expenditures
Government agencies
International Economics
International relations
Political Economy/Economic Systems
Production capacity
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Description
Summary:The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) provides intelligence to the US president, his administration, and the Congress - data collection, analysis, forecasting, and interpretive reporting. The product desired by the administration is, presumably, either the best available estimate or a range of outcomes to which probabilities are attached. An evaluation of the CIA's published work from approximately 1970 through 1990 is presented with particular regard to the quality of estimates of Soviet GNP and rate of growth, the size and burden of Soviet defense expenditures, and the US-Soviet comparisons. An evaluation of the CIA's appraisals of the prospects for change in the Soviet economy, especially their success in anticipating change following Brezhnev's death, and their accuracy in interpreting reform and its prospects, is also presented.
ISSN:0888-7233
1478-3320
DOI:10.1057/ces.1993.10