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A simulation model for football championships

In this paper we discuss a simulation/probability model that identifies the team that is most likely to win a tournament. The model can also be used to answer other questions like ‘which team had a lucky draw?’ or ‘what is the probability that two teams meet at some moment in the tournament?’ Input...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:European journal of operational research 2003-07, Vol.148 (2), p.268-276
Main Authors: Koning, Ruud H., Koolhaas, Michael, Renes, Gusta, Ridder, Geert
Format: Article
Language:English
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Summary:In this paper we discuss a simulation/probability model that identifies the team that is most likely to win a tournament. The model can also be used to answer other questions like ‘which team had a lucky draw?’ or ‘what is the probability that two teams meet at some moment in the tournament?’ Input to the simulation/probability model are scoring intensities, that are estimated as a weighted average of goals scored. The model has been used in practice to write articles for the popular press, and seems to perform well.
ISSN:0377-2217
1872-6860
DOI:10.1016/S0377-2217(02)00683-5