Cycles of violence: A dynamic control analysis

We introduce and analyze a simple model of cycles of violence in which oscillations are generated when surges in lethal violence shrink the pool of active violent offenders. Models with such endogenously induced variation may help explain why historically observed trends in violence are generally no...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:European journal of operational research 2007-08, Vol.181 (1), p.350-361
Main Authors: Caulkins, Jonathan P., Feichtinger, Gustav, Tragler, Gernot, Veliov, Vladimir M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applied sciences
Control theory
Cost benefit analysis
Cycles of violence
Decision making
Decision theory. Utility theory
Dynamic programming
Exact sciences and technology
Hopf bifurcation
Operational research and scientific management
Operational research. Management science
Optimal control
OR in government
Studies
Violence
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Summary:We introduce and analyze a simple model of cycles of violence in which oscillations are generated when surges in lethal violence shrink the pool of active violent offenders. Models with such endogenously induced variation may help explain why historically observed trends in violence are generally not well correlated with exogenous forcing functions, such as changes in the state of the economy. The analysis includes finding the optimal dynamic trajectory of incarceration and violence prevention interventions. Those trajectories yield some surprising results, including situations in which myopic decision makers will invest more in prevention than will far-sighted decision makers.
ISSN:0377-2217
1872-6860
DOI:10.1016/j.ejor.2006.05.027