Convictions versus Conviction Rates: The Prosecutor's Choice

It is natural to suppose that a prosecutor's conviction rate—the ratio of convictions to cases prosecuted—is a sign of his competence. Prosecutors, however, choose which cases to prosecute. If they prosecute only the strongest cases, they will have high conviction rates. Any system that pays at...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:American law and economics review 2009-04, Vol.11 (1), p.47-78
Main Authors: Rasmusen, Eric, Raghav, Manu, Ramseyer, Mark
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Acquittals & mistrials
Budgets
Conviction rates
Convictions
Crime
Criminal justice
Criminal pleas
Criminal prosecution
Criminal statistics
Criminals
Defendants
Felony offenses
Financial budgets
Law schools
Plea bargaining
Prosecuting attorneys
Prosecutions
Public prosecutors
State courts
Trials
Variable budgets
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Summary:It is natural to suppose that a prosecutor's conviction rate—the ratio of convictions to cases prosecuted—is a sign of his competence. Prosecutors, however, choose which cases to prosecute. If they prosecute only the strongest cases, they will have high conviction rates. Any system that pays attention to conviction rates, as opposed to the number of convictions, is liable to abuse. As a prosecutor's budget increases, he allocates it between prosecuting more cases and putting more effort into existing cases. Either can be socially desirable, depending on particular circumstances. We model the tradeoffs theoretically in two models, one of a benevolent social planner and one of a prosecutor who values not just the number of convictions but the conviction rate and unrelated personal goals. We apply the model to U.S. data drawn from countylevel crime statistics and a survey of all state prosecutors by district. Conviction rates do have a small negative correlation with prosecutorial budgets, but conditioning on other variables in regression analysis, higher budgets are associated both with more prosecutions and higher conviction rates.
ISSN:1465-7252
1465-7260
DOI:10.1093/aler/ahp007