Solar radiation and ENSO predict fruiting phenology patterns in a 15-year record from Kibale National Park, Uganda

Fruiting, flowering, and leaf set patterns influence many aspects of tropical forest communities, but there are few long-term studies examining potential drivers of these patterns, particularly in Africa. We evaluated a 15-year dataset of tree phenology in Kibale National Park, Uganda, to identify a...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Biotropica 2018-05, Vol.50 (3), p.384-395
Main Authors: Chapman, Colin A., Valenta, Kim, Bonnell, Tyler R., Brown, Kevin A., Chapman, Lauren J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Annual variations
Climate change
Cloud cover
Crop production
Dynamics
El Nino
El Nino phenomena
ENSO
Flowering
Forest communities
Fruit set
fruiting patterns
Fruits
Irradiance
National parks
Phenology
Radiance
Rain
Rainfall
Regression analysis
Regression models
Seasonal variations
Seasonality
Solar radiation
Southern Oscillation
SPECIAL SECTION
Temperature
Trees
Tropical climate
Tropical forests
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Summary:Fruiting, flowering, and leaf set patterns influence many aspects of tropical forest communities, but there are few long-term studies examining potential drivers of these patterns, particularly in Africa. We evaluated a 15-year dataset of tree phenology in Kibale National Park, Uganda, to identify abiotic predictors of fruit phenological patterns and discuss our findings in light of climate change. We quantified fruiting for 326 trees from 43 species and evaluated these patterns in relation to solar radiance, rainfall, and monthly temperature. We used time-lagged variables based on seasonality in linear regression models to assess the effect of abiotic variables on the proportion of fruiting trees. Annual fruiting varied over 3.8-fold, and inter-annual variation in fruiting is associated with the extent of fruiting in the peak period, not variation in time of fruit set. While temperature and rainfall showed positive effects on fruiting, solar radiance in the two-year period encompassing a given year and the previous year was the strongest predictor of fruiting. As solar irradiance was the strongest predictor of fruiting, the projected increase in rainfall associated with climate change, and coincident increase in cloud cover suggest that climate change will lead to a decrease in fruiting. ENSO in the prior 24-month period was also significantly associated with annual ripe fruit production, and ENSO is also affected by climate change. Predicting changes in phenology demands understanding inter-annual variation in fruit dynamics in light of potential abiotic drivers, patterns that will only emerge with long-term data.
ISSN:0006-3606
1744-7429
DOI:10.1111/btp.12559