Projection of seasonal summer precipitation over Indian sub-continent with a high-resolution AGCM based on the RCP scenarios

• Published in: Meteorology and atmospheric physics 2019-08, Vol.131 (4), p.897-916
• Main Authors: Woo, Sumin, Singh, Gyan Prakash, Oh, Jai-Ho, Lee, Kyoung-Min
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Annual variations; Aquatic Pollution; Atmospheric circulation; Atmospheric models; Atmospheric precipitations; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate; Climate models; Computer simulation; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Evaluation; Extreme weather; Future climates; General circulation models; Heavy rainfall; High resolution; Hydrologic data; Intercomparison; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science; Meteorology; Monsoon climates; Monsoon trough; Monsoons; Original Paper; Precipitation; Precipitation data; Rain; Rain belts; Rainfall; Resolution; Sea ice; Sea ice concentrations; Sea surface temperature; Seasonal variation; Seasonal variations; Simulation; Summer; Summer precipitation; Surface temperature; Terrestrial Pollution; Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Pollution Control
• ISSN: 0177-7971; 1436-5065
• DOI: 10.1007/s00703-018-0612-7

Seasonal changes in precipitation characteristics over India were projected using a high-resolution (40-km) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) during the near- (2010–2039), mid- (2040–2069), and far- (2070–2099) futures. For the model evaluation, we simulated an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project-type present-day climate using AGCM with observed sea-surface temperature and sea-ice concentration. Based on this simulation, we have simulated the current climate from 1979 to 2009 and subsequently the future climate projection until 2100 using a CMCC-CM model from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Using various observed precipitation data, the validation of the simulated precipitation indicates that the AGCM well-captured the high and low rain belts and also onset and withdrawal of monsoon in the present-day climate simulation. Future projections were performed for the above-mentioned time slices (near-, mid-, and far futures). The model projected an increase in summer precipitation from 7 to 18% under RCP4.5 and from 14 to 18% under RCP8.5 from the mid- to far futures. Projected summer precipitation from different time slices depicts an increase over northwest (NWI) and west-south peninsular India (SPI) and a reduction over northeast and north-central India. The model projected an eastward shift of monsoon trough around 2° longitude and expansion and intensification of Mascarene High and Tibetan High seems to be associated with projected precipitation. The model projected extreme precipitation events show an increase (20–50%) in rainy days over NWI and SPI. While a significant increase of about 20–50% is noticed in heavy rain events over SPI during the far future.