Climate change risks for severe storms in developing countries in the context of poverty and inequality in Cambodia

• Published in: Natural hazards (Dordrecht) 2018-10, Vol.94 (1), p.261-278
• Main Authors: Halsnæs, Kirsten, Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl, Kaspersen, Per Skougaard
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adaptation; Aversion; Case studies; Civil Engineering; Climate action; Climate change; Climate models; Developed countries; Developing countries; Distribution; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Economic models; Environmental Management; Environmental risk; Frameworks; Future climates; Geophysics/Geodesy; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Hazards; Households; Hydrogeology; Income; Income distribution; LDCs; Natural Hazards; Original Paper; Parameter sensitivity; Poverty; Risk; Risk aversion; Risk factors; Sensitivity analysis; Severe storms; Storm damage; Storms; Wind measurement
• ISSN: 0921-030X; 1573-0840
• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3387-8

Least developed countries are generally regarded as particularly sensitive to climate change due to among other vulnerable locations and low adaptation capabilities. In the present study, we address climate change hazards in least developed countries by presenting a methodological framework, which is suitable for the estimation damage costs as a function of risk aversion, equality, income distribution and climate scenario using state-of-the-art climate model projections. As a case study, the methodology is applied to study severe storms in Cambodia based on two future climate scenarios and data on historical damages from storm events, which are used as a proxy in performing a sensitivity analysis on all input parameters. For the assumptions and parameter ranges used here, the study shows a high sensitivity to the income distribution (reflected by discount rates) and risk aversion and smaller effects from equality measures and extreme wind climate scenario. We emphasize that the assumptions on risk aversion reflecting consumption smoothing possibilities of low-income households clearly depicts that climate risks can be particularly high as a consequence of poverty and therefore recommend that context-specific vulnerabilities and equity concerns in climate risk studies should be included when making assessments for least developed countries.