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Enhancement of a Parsimonious Water Balance Model to Simulate Surface Hydrology in a Glacierized Watershed
The U.S. Geological Survey monthly water balance model (MWBM) was enhanced with the capability to simulate glaciers in order to make it more suitable for simulating cold region hydrology. The new model, MWBMglacier, is demonstrated in the heavily glacierized and ecologically important Copper River w...
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| Published in: | Journal of geophysical research. Earth surface 2018-05, Vol.123 (5), p.1116-1132 |
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| container_title | Journal of geophysical research. Earth surface |
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| creator | Valentin, Melissa M. Viger, Roland J. Van Beusekom, Ashley E. Hay, Lauren E. Hogue, Terri S. Foks, Nathan Leon |
| description | The U.S. Geological Survey monthly water balance model (MWBM) was enhanced with the capability to simulate glaciers in order to make it more suitable for simulating cold region hydrology. The new model, MWBMglacier, is demonstrated in the heavily glacierized and ecologically important Copper River watershed in Southcentral Alaska. Simulated water budget components compared well to satellite‐based observations and ground measurements of streamflow, evapotranspiration, snow extent, and total water storage, with differences ranging from 0.2% to 7% of the precipitation flux. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for simulated and observed streamflow was greater than 0.8 for six of eight stream gages. Snow extent matched satellite‐based observations with Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values of greater than 0.89 in the four Copper River ecoregions represented. During the simulation period 1949 to 2009, glacier ice melt contributed 25% of total runoff, ranging from 12% to 45% in different tributaries, and glacierized area was reduced by 6%. Statistically significant (p |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1029/2017JF004482 |
| format | article |
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Plain Language Summary
Because cold regions cover more than half of the northern hemisphere, understanding the quantity and movement of water in these places is important. Streamflow in cold regions can experience large and rapid changes in response to changes in temperature and precipitation. Computer simulation models that are relatively easy to set up, use, and interpret are important tools for understanding these responses and managing water resources to maximize societal and environmental benefit. This paper describes such a model, the U.S. Geological Survey monthly water balance model, which was enhanced for cold regions by adding simulations of glaciers and glacier contributions to streamflow. Performance of the enhanced model, referred to as the MWBMglacier model, is demonstrated in the Copper River basin, a large watershed containing hundreds of glaciers in Southcentral Alaska that supports critically important salmon fisheries. The data resulting from this demonstration adds to our understanding of how glacier meltwater contributes to streamflow in the basin and allow us to hypothesize about how these contributions might change in the future.
Key Points
The addition of glaciers to a monthly water balance model provides a broadly usable tool for more complete simulations of cold region hydrology
Remote sensing data enhances parameter calibration and model evaluation in remote regions with sparse monitoring data
Simulation of glacier contributions to streamflow in the heavily glacierized Copper River in Southcentral Alaska provides important insights into the terrestrial water cycle in an ecologically important region</description><identifier>ISSN: 2169-9003</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2169-9011</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1029/2017JF004482</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Washington: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><subject>Alaska ; Climate ; Climate change ; Climate trends ; Cold ; Cold regions ; Computer simulation ; Copper ; Copper River ; Evapotranspiration ; Fisheries ; Fishery data ; Freshwater fishes ; Geological surveys ; Glacial runoff ; glacier ; Glacier ice ; Glacier mass balance ; Glacier melting ; Glaciers ; Glaciohydrology ; hydroclimatology ; Hydrologic models ; Hydrology ; Ice melting ; Mass balance of glaciers ; Meltwater ; Northern Hemisphere ; Pacific Decadal Oscillation ; Precipitation ; River basins ; Rivers ; Runoff ; Salmon ; Satellite observation ; Satellites ; Simulation ; Statistical analysis ; Stream discharge ; Stream flow ; Surveying ; Trends ; Tributaries ; Water balance ; Water budget ; Water management ; Water resources ; Water resources management ; Water storage ; Watersheds</subject><ispartof>Journal of geophysical research. Earth surface, 2018-05, Vol.123 (5), p.1116-1132</ispartof><rights>2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-a3681-d176eef1c313dad9b9b2d8f448868d09f20883d3b585b035ac13239b23a00993</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-a3681-d176eef1c313dad9b9b2d8f448868d09f20883d3b585b035ac13239b23a00993</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-8209-9838 ; 0000-0003-3763-4595 ; 0000-0002-4907-3679 ; 0000-0003-2520-714X ; 0000-0002-6996-978X ; 0000-0003-1524-8896</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029%2F2017JF004482$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029%2F2017JF004482$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,11514,27924,27925,46468,46892</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Valentin, Melissa M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Viger, Roland J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Van Beusekom, Ashley E.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hay, Lauren E.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hogue, Terri S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Foks, Nathan Leon</creatorcontrib><title>Enhancement of a Parsimonious Water Balance Model to Simulate Surface Hydrology in a Glacierized Watershed</title><title>Journal of geophysical research. Earth surface</title><description>The U.S. Geological Survey monthly water balance model (MWBM) was enhanced with the capability to simulate glaciers in order to make it more suitable for simulating cold region hydrology. The new model, MWBMglacier, is demonstrated in the heavily glacierized and ecologically important Copper River watershed in Southcentral Alaska. Simulated water budget components compared well to satellite‐based observations and ground measurements of streamflow, evapotranspiration, snow extent, and total water storage, with differences ranging from 0.2% to 7% of the precipitation flux. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for simulated and observed streamflow was greater than 0.8 for six of eight stream gages. Snow extent matched satellite‐based observations with Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values of greater than 0.89 in the four Copper River ecoregions represented. During the simulation period 1949 to 2009, glacier ice melt contributed 25% of total runoff, ranging from 12% to 45% in different tributaries, and glacierized area was reduced by 6%. Statistically significant (p < 0.05) decreasing and increasing trends in annual glacier mass balance occurred during the multidecade cool and warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, respectively, reinforcing the link between climate perturbations and glacier mass balance change. The simulations of glaciers and total runoff for a large, remote region of Alaska provide useful data to evaluate hydrologic, cryospheric, ecologic, and climatic trends. MWBM glacier is a valuable tool to understand when, and to what extent, streamflow may increase or decrease as glaciers respond to a changing climate.
Plain Language Summary
Because cold regions cover more than half of the northern hemisphere, understanding the quantity and movement of water in these places is important. Streamflow in cold regions can experience large and rapid changes in response to changes in temperature and precipitation. Computer simulation models that are relatively easy to set up, use, and interpret are important tools for understanding these responses and managing water resources to maximize societal and environmental benefit. This paper describes such a model, the U.S. Geological Survey monthly water balance model, which was enhanced for cold regions by adding simulations of glaciers and glacier contributions to streamflow. Performance of the enhanced model, referred to as the MWBMglacier model, is demonstrated in the Copper River basin, a large watershed containing hundreds of glaciers in Southcentral Alaska that supports critically important salmon fisheries. The data resulting from this demonstration adds to our understanding of how glacier meltwater contributes to streamflow in the basin and allow us to hypothesize about how these contributions might change in the future.
Key Points
The addition of glaciers to a monthly water balance model provides a broadly usable tool for more complete simulations of cold region hydrology
Remote sensing data enhances parameter calibration and model evaluation in remote regions with sparse monitoring data
Simulation of glacier contributions to streamflow in the heavily glacierized Copper River in Southcentral Alaska provides important insights into the terrestrial water cycle in an ecologically important region</description><subject>Alaska</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate trends</subject><subject>Cold</subject><subject>Cold regions</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Copper</subject><subject>Copper River</subject><subject>Evapotranspiration</subject><subject>Fisheries</subject><subject>Fishery data</subject><subject>Freshwater fishes</subject><subject>Geological surveys</subject><subject>Glacial runoff</subject><subject>glacier</subject><subject>Glacier ice</subject><subject>Glacier mass balance</subject><subject>Glacier melting</subject><subject>Glaciers</subject><subject>Glaciohydrology</subject><subject>hydroclimatology</subject><subject>Hydrologic models</subject><subject>Hydrology</subject><subject>Ice melting</subject><subject>Mass balance of glaciers</subject><subject>Meltwater</subject><subject>Northern Hemisphere</subject><subject>Pacific Decadal Oscillation</subject><subject>Precipitation</subject><subject>River basins</subject><subject>Rivers</subject><subject>Runoff</subject><subject>Salmon</subject><subject>Satellite observation</subject><subject>Satellites</subject><subject>Simulation</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><subject>Stream discharge</subject><subject>Stream flow</subject><subject>Surveying</subject><subject>Trends</subject><subject>Tributaries</subject><subject>Water balance</subject><subject>Water budget</subject><subject>Water management</subject><subject>Water resources</subject><subject>Water resources management</subject><subject>Water storage</subject><subject>Watersheds</subject><issn>2169-9003</issn><issn>2169-9011</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2018</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp9kN9LwzAQx4MoOObe_AMCvlq9JGuXPOrYD8dEcQMfS9qkLqNtZtIy6l9vRkV88l7uuPvwve8dQtcE7ghQcU-BTFZzgPGY0zM0oCQRkQBCzn9rYJdo5P0eQvDQInSA9rN6J-tcV7pusC2wxK_SeVPZ2tjW43fZaIcfZXli8LNVusSNxRtTtWUY4U3rChkmy045W9qPDps6aCxKmRvtzJdWvYTfaXWFLgpZej36yUO0nc-202W0flk8TR_WkWQJJ5Eik0TrguSMMCWVyERGFS_CWTzhCkRBgXOmWBbzOAMWy5wwygLEJIAQbIhuetmDs5-t9k26t62rw8aUQhyTCSVxEqjbnsqd9d7pIj04U0nXpQTS0z_Tv_8MOOvxoyl19y-brhZv8-Ax2P8Gk_h1hQ</recordid><startdate>201805</startdate><enddate>201805</enddate><creator>Valentin, Melissa M.</creator><creator>Viger, Roland J.</creator><creator>Van Beusekom, Ashley E.</creator><creator>Hay, Lauren E.</creator><creator>Hogue, Terri S.</creator><creator>Foks, Nathan Leon</creator><general>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>H8D</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>L7M</scope><scope>SOI</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8209-9838</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3763-4595</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4907-3679</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2520-714X</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6996-978X</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1524-8896</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>201805</creationdate><title>Enhancement of a Parsimonious Water Balance Model to Simulate Surface Hydrology in a Glacierized Watershed</title><author>Valentin, Melissa M. ; Viger, Roland J. ; Van Beusekom, Ashley E. ; Hay, Lauren E. ; Hogue, Terri S. ; Foks, Nathan Leon</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-a3681-d176eef1c313dad9b9b2d8f448868d09f20883d3b585b035ac13239b23a00993</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2018</creationdate><topic>Alaska</topic><topic>Climate</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climate trends</topic><topic>Cold</topic><topic>Cold regions</topic><topic>Computer simulation</topic><topic>Copper</topic><topic>Copper River</topic><topic>Evapotranspiration</topic><topic>Fisheries</topic><topic>Fishery data</topic><topic>Freshwater fishes</topic><topic>Geological surveys</topic><topic>Glacial runoff</topic><topic>glacier</topic><topic>Glacier ice</topic><topic>Glacier mass balance</topic><topic>Glacier melting</topic><topic>Glaciers</topic><topic>Glaciohydrology</topic><topic>hydroclimatology</topic><topic>Hydrologic models</topic><topic>Hydrology</topic><topic>Ice melting</topic><topic>Mass balance of glaciers</topic><topic>Meltwater</topic><topic>Northern Hemisphere</topic><topic>Pacific Decadal Oscillation</topic><topic>Precipitation</topic><topic>River basins</topic><topic>Rivers</topic><topic>Runoff</topic><topic>Salmon</topic><topic>Satellite observation</topic><topic>Satellites</topic><topic>Simulation</topic><topic>Statistical analysis</topic><topic>Stream discharge</topic><topic>Stream flow</topic><topic>Surveying</topic><topic>Trends</topic><topic>Tributaries</topic><topic>Water balance</topic><topic>Water budget</topic><topic>Water management</topic><topic>Water resources</topic><topic>Water resources management</topic><topic>Water storage</topic><topic>Watersheds</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Valentin, Melissa M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Viger, Roland J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Van Beusekom, Ashley E.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hay, Lauren E.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hogue, Terri S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Foks, Nathan Leon</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Aerospace Database</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><jtitle>Journal of geophysical research. Earth surface</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Valentin, Melissa M.</au><au>Viger, Roland J.</au><au>Van Beusekom, Ashley E.</au><au>Hay, Lauren E.</au><au>Hogue, Terri S.</au><au>Foks, Nathan Leon</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Enhancement of a Parsimonious Water Balance Model to Simulate Surface Hydrology in a Glacierized Watershed</atitle><jtitle>Journal of geophysical research. Earth surface</jtitle><date>2018-05</date><risdate>2018</risdate><volume>123</volume><issue>5</issue><spage>1116</spage><epage>1132</epage><pages>1116-1132</pages><issn>2169-9003</issn><eissn>2169-9011</eissn><abstract>The U.S. Geological Survey monthly water balance model (MWBM) was enhanced with the capability to simulate glaciers in order to make it more suitable for simulating cold region hydrology. The new model, MWBMglacier, is demonstrated in the heavily glacierized and ecologically important Copper River watershed in Southcentral Alaska. Simulated water budget components compared well to satellite‐based observations and ground measurements of streamflow, evapotranspiration, snow extent, and total water storage, with differences ranging from 0.2% to 7% of the precipitation flux. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for simulated and observed streamflow was greater than 0.8 for six of eight stream gages. Snow extent matched satellite‐based observations with Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values of greater than 0.89 in the four Copper River ecoregions represented. During the simulation period 1949 to 2009, glacier ice melt contributed 25% of total runoff, ranging from 12% to 45% in different tributaries, and glacierized area was reduced by 6%. Statistically significant (p < 0.05) decreasing and increasing trends in annual glacier mass balance occurred during the multidecade cool and warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, respectively, reinforcing the link between climate perturbations and glacier mass balance change. The simulations of glaciers and total runoff for a large, remote region of Alaska provide useful data to evaluate hydrologic, cryospheric, ecologic, and climatic trends. MWBM glacier is a valuable tool to understand when, and to what extent, streamflow may increase or decrease as glaciers respond to a changing climate.
Plain Language Summary
Because cold regions cover more than half of the northern hemisphere, understanding the quantity and movement of water in these places is important. Streamflow in cold regions can experience large and rapid changes in response to changes in temperature and precipitation. Computer simulation models that are relatively easy to set up, use, and interpret are important tools for understanding these responses and managing water resources to maximize societal and environmental benefit. This paper describes such a model, the U.S. Geological Survey monthly water balance model, which was enhanced for cold regions by adding simulations of glaciers and glacier contributions to streamflow. Performance of the enhanced model, referred to as the MWBMglacier model, is demonstrated in the Copper River basin, a large watershed containing hundreds of glaciers in Southcentral Alaska that supports critically important salmon fisheries. The data resulting from this demonstration adds to our understanding of how glacier meltwater contributes to streamflow in the basin and allow us to hypothesize about how these contributions might change in the future.
Key Points
The addition of glaciers to a monthly water balance model provides a broadly usable tool for more complete simulations of cold region hydrology
Remote sensing data enhances parameter calibration and model evaluation in remote regions with sparse monitoring data
Simulation of glacier contributions to streamflow in the heavily glacierized Copper River in Southcentral Alaska provides important insights into the terrestrial water cycle in an ecologically important region</abstract><cop>Washington</cop><pub>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</pub><doi>10.1029/2017JF004482</doi><tpages>17</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8209-9838</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3763-4595</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4907-3679</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2520-714X</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6996-978X</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1524-8896</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| identifier | ISSN: 2169-9003 |
| ispartof | Journal of geophysical research. Earth surface, 2018-05, Vol.123 (5), p.1116-1132 |
| issn | 2169-9003 2169-9011 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_journals_2055172156 |
| source | Wiley-Blackwell AGU Digital Library; Wiley-Blackwell Read & Publish Collection |
| subjects | Alaska Climate Climate change Climate trends Cold Cold regions Computer simulation Copper Copper River Evapotranspiration Fisheries Fishery data Freshwater fishes Geological surveys Glacial runoff glacier Glacier ice Glacier mass balance Glacier melting Glaciers Glaciohydrology hydroclimatology Hydrologic models Hydrology Ice melting Mass balance of glaciers Meltwater Northern Hemisphere Pacific Decadal Oscillation Precipitation River basins Rivers Runoff Salmon Satellite observation Satellites Simulation Statistical analysis Stream discharge Stream flow Surveying Trends Tributaries Water balance Water budget Water management Water resources Water resources management Water storage Watersheds |
| title | Enhancement of a Parsimonious Water Balance Model to Simulate Surface Hydrology in a Glacierized Watershed |
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