The next ten years of health spending: What does the future hold?

The sustained low growth in national health spending since 1993 is markedly different from the pattern of growth observed over the past 30 years. However, the outlook for the next few years is somewhat less propitious. Following 5 years of near-stability, health spending is expected to rise as a sha...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Health affairs (Millwood, Va.) Va.), 1998-09, Vol.17 (5), p.128-140
Main Authors: Smith, Sheila, Freeland, Mark, Heffler, Stephen, McKusick, David
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Access control
Age
Baby boomers
Business forecasts
Demographics
Discounts
Economic development
Economics
Employers
Error analysis
Expenditures
Forecasting
GDP
Government programs
Gross Domestic Product
Health care
Health care expenditures
Health care industry
Health care policy
Health economics
Health insurance
Health maintenance organizations
Health services
HMOs
Insurance coverage
Macroeconomics
Medical research
Medical technology
Medicare
Per capita
Personal health
Population growth
Prices
Risk acceptance
Statistical analysis
Studies
Trends
Trust funds
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Summary:The sustained low growth in national health spending since 1993 is markedly different from the pattern of growth observed over the past 30 years. However, the outlook for the next few years is somewhat less propitious. Following 5 years of near-stability, health spending is expected to rise as a share of gross domestic products beginning in 1998, climbing from 13.6% in 1996 to an estimated 16.6% by 2007. National health spending will likely reach $2.1 trillion by 2007. A study examines the patterns of growth anticipated for health spending across different sectors and the various influences on these patterns.
ISSN:0278-2715
1544-5208
DOI:10.1377/hlthaff.17.5.128