An updated scenario typology

Scenario analysis has evolved notably in its 50-year history and today there is a large diversity in the scenarios that are developed. Establishing an overview of this diversity would be useful for the further development of scenario method. However, such an overview cannot be generated without the...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Futures : the journal of policy, planning and futures studies planning and futures studies, 2003-06, Vol.35 (5), p.423-443
Main Authors: van Notten, Philip W.F, Rotmans, Jan, van Asselt, Marjolein B.A, Rothman, Dale S
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Comparative analysis
Decision making
Processes
Studies
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Summary:Scenario analysis has evolved notably in its 50-year history and today there is a large diversity in the scenarios that are developed. Establishing an overview of this diversity would be useful for the further development of scenario method. However, such an overview cannot be generated without the use of a shared understanding of the typical features of scenario development and of the relevant terminology. A broadly shared scenario typology can provide this common understanding but existing typologies do not capture the diversity of scenario types. To this end we propose an updated typology, the presentation of which is the focus of this paper. We also explain how the typology was tested for its robustness in a comparative analysis of recent scenario projects.
ISSN:0016-3287
1873-6378
DOI:10.1016/S0016-3287(02)00090-3