The effect of graphical adjustment on forecast accuracy

An experiment measured the effect on accuracy of graphical adjustment of statistical forecasts. Adjustment produced no systematic gains in accuracy, though some series saw large changes. Accuracy improvement from adjustment correlated with “excess error”, defined as the difference in mean absolute p...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of forecasting 1991-01, Vol.7 (2), p.151-154
Main Author: Willemain, Thomas R.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accuracy
Economic forecasting
Experiments
Extrapolation
Forecasting techniques
Judgmental forecasting
Statistical methods
Time series
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Summary:An experiment measured the effect on accuracy of graphical adjustment of statistical forecasts. Adjustment produced no systematic gains in accuracy, though some series saw large changes. Accuracy improvement from adjustment correlated with “excess error”, defined as the difference in mean absolute percentage error of unadjusted automatic and naive forecasts. Studies of judgmental forecasting should control for excess error.
ISSN:0169-2070
1872-8200
DOI:10.1016/0169-2070(91)90049-2