Temperature is a poor proxy for synergistic climate forcing of plankton evolution

Changes in biodiversity at all levels from molecules to ecosystems are often linked to climate change, which is widely represented univariately by temperature. A global environmental driving mechanism of biodiversity dynamics is thus implied by the strong correlation between temperature proxies and...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the Royal Society. B, Biological sciences Biological sciences, 2018-07, Vol.285 (1883), p.20180665-20180665
Main Authors: Brombacher, Anieke, Wilson, Paul A., Bailey, Ian, Ezard, Thomas H. G.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Abundance
Animals
Biodiversity
Biological Evolution
Climate Change
Climate models
Climate system
Ecological effects
Environment models
Environmental changes
Environmental factors
Evolution
Flora
Foraminifera
Foraminifera - cytology
Foraminifera - physiology
Life History Traits
Microevolution
Molecular chains
Morphology
Palaeobiology
Parameter identification
Plankton
Productivity
Temperature
Temperature effects
Zooplankton - cytology
Zooplankton - physiology
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Summary:Changes in biodiversity at all levels from molecules to ecosystems are often linked to climate change, which is widely represented univariately by temperature. A global environmental driving mechanism of biodiversity dynamics is thus implied by the strong correlation between temperature proxies and diversity patterns in a wide variety of fauna and flora. Yet climate consists of many interacting variables. Species probably respond to the entire climate system as opposed to its individual facets. Here, we examine ecological and morphological traits of 12 633 individuals of two species of planktonic foraminifera with similar ecologies but contrasting evolutionary outcomes. Our results show that morphological and ecological changes are correlated to the interactions between multiple environmental factors. Models including interactions between climate variables explain at least twice as much variation in size, shape and abundance changes as models assuming that climate parameters operate independently. No dominant climatic driver can be identified: temperature alone explains remarkably little variation through our highly resolved temporal sequences, implying that a multivariate approach is required to understand evolutionary response to abiotic forcing. Our results caution against the use of a ‘silver bullet’ environmental parameter to represent global climate while studying evolutionary responses to abiotic change, and show that more comprehensive reconstruction of palaeobiological dynamics requires multiple biotic and abiotic dimensions.
ISSN:0962-8452
1471-2954
DOI:10.1098/rspb.2018.0665