Sequential Monte Carlo Filtering Estimation of Ebola Progression in West Africa

We use a multivariate formulation of sequential Monte Carlo filter that utilizes mechanistic models for Ebola virus propagation and available incidence data to simultaneously estimate the disease progression states and the model parameters. This method has the advantage of performing the inference o...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:arXiv.org 2016-01
Main Authors: Narges Montazeri Shahtori, Scoglio, Caterina, Pourhabib, Arash, Faryad Darabi Sahneh
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Computer simulation
Ebola virus
Epidemics
Outbreaks
Viral diseases
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:We use a multivariate formulation of sequential Monte Carlo filter that utilizes mechanistic models for Ebola virus propagation and available incidence data to simultaneously estimate the disease progression states and the model parameters. This method has the advantage of performing the inference online as the new data becomes available and estimates the evolution of basic reproductive ratio \(R_0(t)\) of the Ebola outbreak through time. Our analysis identifies a peak in the basic reproductive ratio close to the time when Ebola cases were reported in Europe and the USA.
ISSN:2331-8422