Should Forest Transition Theory include effects on forest fires? The case of Spain in the second half of the twentieth century

• Published in: Land use policy 2018-07, Vol.76, p.789-797
• Main Authors: Iriarte-Goñi, Iñaki, Ayuda, María-Isabel
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 20th century; Afforestation; Dictatorship; Environment; Environmental history; Forest & brush fires; Forest fires; Forest history; Forest management; Forest Transition Theory; Forests; Land use; Panel data; Plantations; Trees
• ISSN: 0264-8377; 1873-5754
• DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.03.009

•Relationship between Forest Transition and forest fires in Spain, 1940–2002.•Significant relationship between reforestation and forest fires 25–35 years later.•Importance of authoritarian way of imposing tree plantation on FT effects.•FTT should focus on the effects of plantations on wildfires in areas prone to fire. This paper analyses the increase in forest surface covered by trees in Spain in the second half of the twentieth century in the light of Forest Transition Theory and explores the existence of a statistical relationship between this process and forest fires. The study describes the afforestation policy based on new forest plantations developed by Franco’s Dictatorship in the period 1940–1988, linking it to the forest fires that occurred in the period 1968–2002, in order to determine, at a provincial level, the extent to which the afforestation activity affected the number of hectares burnt. The evidence shows a significant positive relationship between forest fires and the afforested hectares, especially 30–35 years after plantations. The effect increases when the model is implemented exclusively for the Cantabrian and Atlantic north-west provinces, especially affected by afforestation programmes. Our findings reinforce the need to complement certain models of Forest Transition based on tree plantations, taking into account the possible relationship that they have with fires, particularly in environmental contexts prone to fires.