A Global Map of Suitability for Coastal Vibrio cholerae Under Current and Future Climate Conditions

Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disea...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:arXiv.org 2015-06
Main Authors: Escobar, Luis E, Ryan, Sadie J, Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M, Finkelstein, Julia L, King, Christine A, Qiao, Huijie, Polhemus, Mark E
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bacteria
Chlorophyll
Cholera
Climate
Climate change
Coastal zone
Disease
Disease control
Early warning systems
Ecological niches
Imagery
Marine environment
Mathematical models
Outbreaks
Pathogens
Remote sensing
Sea surface temperature
Seawater
Surveillance
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Summary:Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control.
ISSN:2331-8422
DOI:10.48550/arxiv.1506.01757