Bounding the Probability of Causation in Mediation Analysis

Given empirical evidence for the dependence of an outcome variable on an exposure variable, we can typically only provide bounds for the "probability of causation" in the case of an individual who has developed the outcome after being exposed. We show how these bounds can be adapted or imp...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:arXiv.org 2014-11
Main Authors: Dawid, A P, Murtas, R, Musio, M
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Causality
Causation
Dependence
Empirical analysis
Mediation
Probabilistic inference
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Given empirical evidence for the dependence of an outcome variable on an exposure variable, we can typically only provide bounds for the "probability of causation" in the case of an individual who has developed the outcome after being exposed. We show how these bounds can be adapted or improved if further information becomes available. In addition to reviewing existing work on this topic, we provide a new analysis for the case where a mediating variable can be observed. In particular we show how the probability of causation can be bounded when there is no direct effect and no confounding. Keywords: Causal inference, Mediation Analysis, Probability of Causation
ISSN:2331-8422