How does the past of a soccer match influence its future?

Scoring goals in a soccer match can be interpreted as a stochastic process. In the most simple description of a soccer match one assumes that scoring goals can be described by a constant goal rate for each team, implying simple Poissonian and Markovian behavior. Here a general framework for the iden...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:arXiv.org 2012-07
Main Authors: Heuer, Andreas, Rubner, Oliver
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Markov processes
Soccer
Stochastic processes
Target markets
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Scoring goals in a soccer match can be interpreted as a stochastic process. In the most simple description of a soccer match one assumes that scoring goals can be described by a constant goal rate for each team, implying simple Poissonian and Markovian behavior. Here a general framework for the identification of deviations from this behavior is presented. For this endeavor it is essential to formulate an a priori estimate of the expected number of goals per team in a specific match. The analysis scheme is applied to approximately 40 seasons of the German Bundesliga. It is possible to characterize the impact of the previous course of the match on the present match behavior. This allows one to identify interesting generic features about soccer matches and thus to learn about the hidden complexities behind scoring goals.
ISSN:2331-8422