Statistical Modeling of Solar Flare Activity from Empirical Time Series of Soft X-ray Solar Emission

A time series of soft X-ray emission observed on 1974-2007 years (GOES) is analyzed. We show that in the periods of high solar activity 1977-1981, 1988-1992, 1999-2003 the energy statistics of soft X-ray solar flares for class M and C is well described by a FARIMA time series with Pareto innovations...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:arXiv.org 2008-05
Main Authors: Stanislavsky, A A, Burnecki, K, Magdziarz, M, Weron, A, Weron, K
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Dependence
Emission analysis
Empirical analysis
Soft x rays
Solar activity
Solar flares
Statistical models
Time series
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:A time series of soft X-ray emission observed on 1974-2007 years (GOES) is analyzed. We show that in the periods of high solar activity 1977-1981, 1988-1992, 1999-2003 the energy statistics of soft X-ray solar flares for class M and C is well described by a FARIMA time series with Pareto innovations. The model is characterized by two effects. One of them is a long-range dependence (long-term memory), and another corresponds to heavy-tailed distributions. Their parameters are statistically stable enough during the periods. However, when the solar activity tends to minimum, they change essentially. We discuss possible causes of this evolution and suggest a statistical model for predicting the flare energy statistics.
ISSN:2331-8422
DOI:10.48550/arxiv.0805.0968