THE LONG VIEW: SCENARIOS FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY TO 2060

[...]the scenarios are not meant to provide a realistic forecast of the future.[...]long-run scenarios are useful, but not always sufficient, to provide country-specific policy recommendations, which must take account of particular economic and policy contexts that cannot be fully incorporated into...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:OECD Economic Policy Papers 2018-07 (22), p.1-50
Main Authors: Guillemette, Yvan, Turner, David
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aging
Climate change
Deficit financing
Economic forecasts
Economic growth
Economic models
Education
Educational attainment
Emerging markets
Employment
GDP
Global economy
Gross Domestic Product
Human capital
Low income groups
Market economies
Pensions
Per capita
Publishing
R&D
Realism
Reforms
Research & development
Standard of living
Trends
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Summary:[...]the scenarios are not meant to provide a realistic forecast of the future.[...]long-run scenarios are useful, but not always sufficient, to provide country-specific policy recommendations, which must take account of particular economic and policy contexts that cannot be fully incorporated into such a stylised exercise.[...]section 6 illustrates the negative impact on worldwide prosperity that rising trade protectionism could have. 2.The baseline scenario: a continuation of current trends Because it is intended to provide a point of reference for the discussion of other scenarios involving various reforms, the baseline scenario assumes essentially no change to initial institutional and policy settings over the projection period.Boxes 1 to 3 summarise the main features of the long-term model and provide references where more details can be found. 2.1.World growth slows and the weight of emerging market economies rises Perhaps the most salient feature of the baseline scenario is the continued slowdown in world trend real GDP growth (Figure 1, Panel A).4 From a rate of 3.4% at the start of the projection period in 2019, it decelerates for the next four decades, driven by slowing growth in the large emerging market economies (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa, henceforth BRIICS).
ISSN:2226-583X