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Towards more resilient integrated power grid capacity expansion: A robust optimization approach with operational flexibility

This paper proposes a multi-period two-stage adaptive robust optimization model for long term power grid capacity expansion in an environmentally conscious way under generator output uncertainties due to natural variations and generator disruptions. In the first stage, the model plans generator addi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Energy economics 2018-05, Vol.72, p.20-34
Main Authors: Caunhye, Aakil M., Cardin, Michel-Alexandre
Format: Article
Language:English
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Summary:This paper proposes a multi-period two-stage adaptive robust optimization model for long term power grid capacity expansion in an environmentally conscious way under generator output uncertainties due to natural variations and generator disruptions. In the first stage, the model plans generator addition and transmission line setup prior to, and robust to, uncertainty realization. In the second stage, it plans power generation and dispatch after, and flexible to, uncertainty realization. The model exploits the idea of strategic robustness and operational flexibility as a way to improve performance in the face of uncertainty. The robust optimization framework uses deterministic uncertainty sets, with parameters that permit control over the level of conservatism of the solution. Because the resulting two-stage model is semi-infinite and, therefore, intractable, it is reformulated as an affinely adjustable counterpart. The reformulation uses affine decision rules on second-stage variables and converts, after constraint processing, the semi-infinite model into a finite single-stage mixed integer programming model. The resulting model is tested on the IEEE 30-bus system and value gains are shown by comparing the performance of the model with a deterministic model and a stochastic programming model with varying risk aversions. •A two-stage robust optimization model is proposed for power grid expansion, considering generator output uncertainties•First stage plans generator addition and transmission line setup prior to, and robust to, uncertainty realizations•Second stage plans power generation and dispatch after, and flexible to, uncertainty realizations•Affine decision rules used on second-stage variables to convert semi-infinite model into finite single-stage model•Model tested on IEEE 30-bus system and value gains are shown against stochastic programming models of varying risk aversions
ISSN:0140-9883
1873-6181
DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2018.03.014