Properties and Stochastic nature of BEA's early estimates of GNP

In this article we investigate the extent to which successive estimates of the GNP prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis “fully” reflect available information. Using a statistical framework based on the properties of nested information sets and recursive projection, we have derived and tested...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of economics and business 1991-08, Vol.43 (3), p.231-239
Main Authors: Neftci, Salih N., Theodossiou, Panayiotis
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Economic theory
Errors
Estimates
Forecasts
GNP
Gross National Product
Growth rate
Regression analysis
Stochastic models
Studies
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Summary:In this article we investigate the extent to which successive estimates of the GNP prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis “fully” reflect available information. Using a statistical framework based on the properties of nested information sets and recursive projection, we have derived and tested specific restrictions these estimates should follow. The tests carried out show that all preliminary estimates fail to meet the restrictions.
ISSN:0148-6195
1879-1735
DOI:10.1016/0148-6195(91)90021-N