Integrating Fast and Frugal Heuristics with a Model of Memory‐based Cue Generation

Although the fast and frugal heuristics have been studied extensively, relatively little attention has been paid to how cues are generated to be used within the heuristics. The goal of this paper is to propose and test a memory‐based model of how cues are generated and used in cue‐based inferences....

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of behavioral decision making 2018-10, Vol.31 (4), p.487-507
Main Authors: Lawrence, Ashley, Thomas, Rick P., Dougherty, Michael R.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
cue accessibility
Cues
cue‐based inference
Decision makers
Decision making
Forecasting
Heuristic
heuristics
hypothesis generation
Learning
Memory
Retrieval
Take‐the‐best
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Summary:Although the fast and frugal heuristics have been studied extensively, relatively little attention has been paid to how cues are generated to be used within the heuristics. The goal of this paper is to propose and test a memory‐based model of how cues are generated and used in cue‐based inferences. The current study advances theory by integrating the fast and frugal heuristics with HyGene, a memory‐based model of how decision makers generate and evaluate hypotheses. Using archival data in which memory retrieval variables were not directly manipulated, we demonstrate that participants' cue selection behavior is consistent with memory‐based retrieval. Further, by directly manipulating memory retrieval within a cue‐based stock‐forecasting task, we demonstrate that memory processes underlie cue use. Participants' cue use varied depending on the relationship between cue validity and the frequency with which the cues were seen during learning. The HyGene model provided the best account of the empirical data, providing further evidence for the critical role of memory in judgment and decision making. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
ISSN:0894-3257
1099-0771
DOI:10.1002/bdm.2069