Modeling the distribution of white spruce (Picea glauca) for Alaska with high accuracy: an open access role-model for predicting tree species in last remaining wilderness areas

Most wilderness areas still lack accurate distribution information on tree species. We met this need with a predictive GIS modeling approach, using freely available digital data and computer programs to efficiently obtain high-quality species distribution maps. Here we present a digital map with the...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Polar biology 2009-12, Vol.32 (12), p.1717-1729
Main Authors: Ohse, Bettina, Huettmann, Falk, Ickert-Bond, Stefanie M, Juday, Glenn P
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animal and plant ecology
Animal, plant and microbial ecology
Biological and medical sciences
Biomedical and Life Sciences
Climate change
Ecology
Environmental impact
Forestry
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
General aspects. Techniques
Geographic information systems
Life Sciences
Methods and techniques (sampling, tagging, trapping, modelling...)
Microbiology
Oceanography
Original Paper
Particular ecosystems
Plant Sciences
Plant species
Synecology
Trees
Wilderness
Wilderness areas
Zoology
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Summary:Most wilderness areas still lack accurate distribution information on tree species. We met this need with a predictive GIS modeling approach, using freely available digital data and computer programs to efficiently obtain high-quality species distribution maps. Here we present a digital map with the predicted distribution of white spruce (Picea glauca) in Alaska (4 km resolution, accuracy over 90%). Our presented concept represents a role-model for predicting tree species distribution for remote areas world-wide. Although this model intends to be accurate in making predictions rather than to give detailed biological mechanistic explanations, it can also be used as a baseline for further research and testable hypothesis on the importance of the environmental variables used to build a generalizable model. Further, we emphasize that work like presented here is a pre-condition for assessing human impacts and impacts of climate change on species distribution in a quantitative and transparent fashion, allowing for improved sustainable decision-making world-wide.
ISSN:0722-4060
1432-2056
DOI:10.1007/s00300-009-0671-9