Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests

We present the climate change impact on the annual and seasonal precipitation over Rajang River Basin (RRB) in Sarawak by employing a set of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on the capability to simulate the historical precipitation, we selected the three most...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Theoretical and applied climatology 2018-10, Vol.134 (1-2), p.423-440
Main Authors: Hussain, Mubasher, Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan, Mustafa, Muhammad Raza Ul, Mahmood, Rashid, Jia, Shaofeng
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Annual precipitation
Aquatic Pollution
Atmospheric precipitations
Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate change
Climate models
Climate science
Climatology
Computer simulation
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Environmental impact
Evaluation
Future precipitation
Global temperature changes
Intercomparison
Original Paper
Precipitation
Rain
Rain and rainfall
Rain forests
Rainfall
Rainforests
River basins
Rivers
Seasonal precipitation
Seasons
Statistical analysis
Tropical climate
Waste Water Technology
Water Management
Water Pollution Control
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:We present the climate change impact on the annual and seasonal precipitation over Rajang River Basin (RRB) in Sarawak by employing a set of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on the capability to simulate the historical precipitation, we selected the three most suitable GCMs (i.e. ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, and GFDL-ESM2M) and their mean ensemble (B3MMM) was used to project the future precipitation over the RRB. Historical (1976–2005) and future (2011–2100) precipitation ensembles of B3MMM were used to perturb the stochastically generated future precipitation over 25 rainfall stations in the river basin. The B3MMM exhibited a significant increase in precipitation during 2080s, up to 12 and 8% increase in annual precipitation over upper and lower RRB, respectively, under RCP8.5, and up to 7% increase in annual precipitation under RCP4.5. On the seasonal scale, Mann-Kendal trend test estimated statistically significant positive trend in the future precipitation during all seasons; except September to November when we only noted significant positive trend for the lower RRB under RCP4.5. Overall, at the end of the twenty-first century, an increase in annual precipitation is noteworthy in the whole RRB, with 7 and 10% increase in annual precipitation under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, respectively.
ISSN:0177-798X
1434-4483
DOI:10.1007/s00704-017-2284-5