Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests

• Published in: Theoretical and applied climatology 2018-10, Vol.134 (1-2), p.423-440
• Main Authors: Hussain, Mubasher, Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan, Mustafa, Muhammad Raza Ul, Mahmood, Rashid, Jia, Shaofeng
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Analysis; Annual precipitation; Aquatic Pollution; Atmospheric precipitations; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate change; Climate models; Climate science; Climatology; Computer simulation; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Environmental impact; Evaluation; Future precipitation; Global temperature changes; Intercomparison; Original Paper; Precipitation; Rain; Rain and rainfall; Rain forests; Rainfall; Rainforests; River basins; Rivers; Seasonal precipitation; Seasons; Statistical analysis; Tropical climate; Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Pollution Control
• ISSN: 0177-798X; 1434-4483
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-017-2284-5

We present the climate change impact on the annual and seasonal precipitation over Rajang River Basin (RRB) in Sarawak by employing a set of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on the capability to simulate the historical precipitation, we selected the three most suitable GCMs (i.e. ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, and GFDL-ESM2M) and their mean ensemble (B3MMM) was used to project the future precipitation over the RRB. Historical (1976–2005) and future (2011–2100) precipitation ensembles of B3MMM were used to perturb the stochastically generated future precipitation over 25 rainfall stations in the river basin. The B3MMM exhibited a significant increase in precipitation during 2080s, up to 12 and 8% increase in annual precipitation over upper and lower RRB, respectively, under RCP8.5, and up to 7% increase in annual precipitation under RCP4.5. On the seasonal scale, Mann-Kendal trend test estimated statistically significant positive trend in the future precipitation during all seasons; except September to November when we only noted significant positive trend for the lower RRB under RCP4.5. Overall, at the end of the twenty-first century, an increase in annual precipitation is noteworthy in the whole RRB, with 7 and 10% increase in annual precipitation under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, respectively.