Changes in Hurricanes from a 13-Yr Convection-Permitting Pseudo–Global Warming Simulation

• Published in: Journal of climate 2018-05, Vol.31 (9), p.3643-3657
• Main Authors: Gutmann, Ethan D., Rasmussen, Roy M., Liu, Changhai, Ikeda, Kyoko, Bruyere, Cindy L., Done, James M., Garrè, Luca, Friis-Hansen, Peter, Veldore, Vidyunmala
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Boundary conditions; Climate; Climate change; Climate models; Climate system; Computer simulation; Convection; Cyclone tracks; Cyclones; Future climates; Global climate; Global warming; Group technology; Humidity; Hurricanes; Intercomparison; Laboratories; Modelling; Precipitation; Regional climate models; Regional climates; Simulation; Socioeconomic factors; Statistical analysis; Storm damage; Storms; Studies; Tracking; Translation; Tropical climate; Tropical cyclone tracks; Tropical cyclones; Weather forecasting; Wind; Wind shear; Wind speed; Winds
• ISSN: 0894-8755; 1520-0442
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-17-0391.1

Tropical cyclones have enormous costs to society through both loss of life and damage to infrastructure. There is good reason to believe that such storms will change in the future as a result of changes in the global climate system and that such changes may have important socioeconomic implications. Here a high-resolution regional climate modeling experiment is presented using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to investigate possible changes in tropical cyclones. These simulations were performed for the period 2001–13 using the ERA-Interim product for the boundary conditions, thus enabling a direct comparison between modeled and observed cyclone characteristics. The WRF simulation reproduced 30 of the 32 named storms that entered the model domain during this period. The model simulates the tropical cyclone tracks, storm radii, and translation speeds well, but the maximum wind speeds simulated were less than observed and the minimum central pressures were too large. This experiment is then repeated after imposing a future climate signal by adding changes in temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind speeds derived from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In the current climate, 22 tracks were well simulated with little changes in future track locations. These simulations produced tropical cyclones with faster maximum winds, slower storm translation speeds, lower central pressures, and higher precipitation rates. Importantly, while these signals were statistically significant averaged across all 22 storms studied, changes varied substantially between individual storms. This illustrates the importance of using a large ensemble of storms to understand mean changes.