Infertility. Multivariate Markov chain analysis of the probability of pregnancy in infertile couples undergoing assisted reproduction

BACKGROUND: Estimating the probability of pregnancy leading to delivery and the influence of clinical factors on that probability is of fundamental importance in the treatment counselling of infertile couples. A variety of statistical techniques have been used to analyse fertility data, many borrowe...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Human reproduction (Oxford) 2002-01, Vol.17 (1), p.103
Main Authors: McDonnell, Joseph, Goverde, Angelique J, Frans F.H. Rutten, Jan P.W. Vermeiden
Format: Article
Language:English
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:BACKGROUND: Estimating the probability of pregnancy leading to delivery and the influence of clinical factors on that probability is of fundamental importance in the treatment counselling of infertile couples. A variety of statistical techniques have been used to analyse fertility data, many borrowed from survival analysis. METHODS AND RESULTS: We propose an alternative method of analysis which is based on a discrete time Markov chain approach, with states 'pregnancy (leading to a delivery)', 'not pregnant', and 'censored' and in which the transition probabilities are dependent both on the clinical characteristics of the patient and the treatment given. CONCLUSIONS: We believe that the method of analysis presented here may be preferable to standard analyses in that it better reflects the clinical situation, it is a truly discrete time analysis applied to a discrete time situation, it explicitly models the censoring process (a process which in itself provides information of interest to the physician) and can be readily extended to a variety of clinical situations.
ISSN:0268-1161
1460-2350