A Wiener-Process-Model-Based Method for Remaining Useful Life Prediction Considering Unit-to-Unit Variability

• Published in: IEEE transactions on industrial electronics (1982) 2019-03, Vol.66 (3), p.2092-2101
• Main Authors: Li, Naipeng, Lei, Yaguo, Yan, Tao, Li, Ningbo, Han, Tianyu
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Algorithms; Computer simulation; Degradation; Filtration; Life prediction; Mathematical models; Maximum likelihood estimation; Modeling; Parameter estimation; Particle filtering (PF); Prediction algorithms; Predictive maintenance; Predictive models; remaining useful life (RUL) prediction; Resampling; Trajectory; Turbofan engines; unit maximum likelihood estimation (UMLE); unit-to-unit variability (UtUV); Useful life; Wiener process model (WPM)
• ISSN: 0278-0046; 1557-9948
• DOI: 10.1109/TIE.2018.2838078

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction has attracted more and more attention in recent years because of its significance in predictive maintenance. The degradation processes of systems from the same population are generally different from one another due to their various operational conditions and health states. This behavior is defined as unit-to-unit variability (UtUV), which brings difficulty to RUL prediction. To handle this problem, this paper develops a Wiener-process-model (WPM)-based method for RUL prediction with the consideration of the UtUV. In this method, an age- and state-dependent WPM is specially designed to describe the various degradation processes of different units. A unit maximum likelihood estimation (UMLE) algorithm is proposed to estimate the UtUV parameter according to the measurements of training units, without any restriction to the distribution pattern of the parameter. The UtUV parameter is further updated via particle filtering (PF) according to the measurements of the testing unit. In the particle updating process, a fuzzy resampling algorithm is developed to handle the sample impoverishment problem of PF. With the updated parameter, the RUL is predicted through a degradation process simulation algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified through a simulation study and a turbofan engine degradation dataset.