Future climatic suitability of the Emilia-Romagna (Italy) region for grape production

Grape production is highly responsive to weather conditions and therefore very sensitive to climate change. To evaluate how viticulture in the traditional Italian wine region Emilia-Romagna could be affected by climate change, several bioclimatic indices describing the suitability for grapevine prod...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Regional environmental change 2019-02, Vol.19 (2), p.599-614
Main Authors: Teslić, Nemanja, Vujadinović, Mirjam, Ruml, Mirjana, Ricci, Arianna, Vuković, Ana, Parpinello, Giuseppina P., Versari, Andrea
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
21st century
Bioclimatology
Climate Change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Cultivation
Earth and Environmental Science
Environment
Fruit cultivation
Fruits
Geography
Global temperature changes
Grapes
Nature Conservation
Oceanography
Original Article
Regional/Spatial Science
Viticulture
Weather
Wines
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Summary:Grape production is highly responsive to weather conditions and therefore very sensitive to climate change. To evaluate how viticulture in the traditional Italian wine region Emilia-Romagna could be affected by climate change, several bioclimatic indices describing the suitability for grapevine production were calculated for two future periods (2011–2040 and 2071–2100) using CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) high-resolution climate simulations under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios—RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The projections for both of the RCP scenarios showed that most of the Emilia-Romagna region will remain suitable for grape production during the period 2011–2040. By the end of the twenty-first century, the suitability to produce grapes in Emilia-Romagna could be threatened to a greater or smaller extent, depending on the scenario. During the period 2071–2100, the entire Emilia-Romagna region will be too hot for grape production under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, changes will be milder, suggesting that the Emilia-Romagna region could still be suitable for grape cultivation by the end of the twenty-first century but would likely require certain adjustments.
ISSN:1436-3798
1436-378X
DOI:10.1007/s10113-018-1431-6