Regression models of macroeconomic paradoxes: The case of inflation and the interest rate in Russia

• Main Authors: Rylova, A. P., Varaksin, A. N., Ilysheva, M. A., Detkov, A. A.
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adequacy; Currencies; Economic analysis; Economic development; Economic forecasting; Economic models; Empirical analysis; GDP; Global economy; Gross Domestic Product; Indicators; Interest rates; Macroeconomics; Paradoxes; Regression analysis; Regression models; Variations
• ISSN: 0094-243X; 1551-7616
• DOI: 10.1063/1.5079108

The interval from 1992 to 2017 is analyzed in the paper, while special attention is paid to the period of stable macroeconomic policy in Russia in 2002-2017. The focus is laid on the contradictory behavior of key indicators of economic development. Some models of multiple regression of the relationship between key economic indicators and monetary policy have been constructed using empirical data. The explanatory indicator of the models is GDP, and the predictors are the interest rate, the dollar-to-ruble rate and inflation. The presence of correlations between the predictors necessitated the inclusion of cross-members in the models (members with products of predictors). In the specific case of GDP, the contribution of cross-members turned out to be insignificant. The adequacy of models is checked not only by the coefficient of determination, but also by the diagram “Observed vs Expected GDP”. Clear time periods of systemic reorganization of the Russian economy (2002-2011 and 2011-2017) have been identified, which make it possible to build more reliable forecast models. The analysis of models shows that the macroeconomics of Russia is sensitive to the world economy fluctuations.