LA SOSTENIBILIDAD DEL SISTEMA DE PENSIONES. UNA APROXIMACIÓN A PARTIR DE LA MCVL

In this paper we project the contributory pension expenditure of the Spanish Social Security system using the Continuous Sample of Working Histories (MCVL), a new data set on working lives recently published by the Spanish Social Security office. The MCVL contains useful information for projecting p...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Revista de economía aplicada 2008-01, Vol.16 (E1), p.29
Main Authors: Moral-Arce, Ignacio, Patxot, Ció, Souto, Guadalupe
Format: Article
Language:Spanish
Subjects:
Data analysis
Government spending
Pension plans
Simulation
Social security
Studies
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Summary:In this paper we project the contributory pension expenditure of the Spanish Social Security system using the Continuous Sample of Working Histories (MCVL), a new data set on working lives recently published by the Spanish Social Security office. The MCVL contains useful information for projecting pension expenditure that is not available in other sources. In fact, previous projection exercises often required heroic assumptions in order to disaggregate expenditure in some way - i.e. according to age, sex, or pension category. In our projection, we use a model that straddles the non-behavioural dynamic micro simulation models and the accounting models that incorporate some heterogeneity. The model disaggregates expenditure - the number of beneficiaries and their average pension - by pension category, age, and sex. Using some basic inputs now available in the MCVL, we test previous results and find that they are largely in line with those presented here, though sizable differences remain. The MCVL allows us to incorporate two main improvements into the estimation. First, the estimation and inclusion of longitudinal earning profiles has a considerable impact on both the size and the time path of the results. In fact, the end of the present surplus for the contributory pension system is brought forward by around six years. Second, the consideration of a differential adjustment of pension thresholds finds that the inflation adjustment for the entire period would save at most 1.13% of GDP in 2050. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
ISSN:2632-7627