The estimation of yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model

Based on the calculation method of information gain in the stochastic process presented by Vere-Jones, the relation between information gain and probability gain is studied, which is very common in earthquake prediction, and the yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model is proposed. The...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Acta seismologica sinica 2000-01, Vol.13 (1), p.38-49
Main Authors: Liu, Jie, Zhuang, Jian-Cang, David, Vere-Jones, Shi, Yao-Lin, Ma, Li
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Earthquake prediction
Earthquakes
Gain
Inverse
Mathematical models
Probability
Seismic activity
Seismic engineering
Seismic phenomena
Seismology
Statistical analysis
Statistical models
Stochastic models
Stochastic processes
Stresses
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Summary:Based on the calculation method of information gain in the stochastic process presented by Vere-Jones, the relation between information gain and probability gain is studied, which is very common in earthquake prediction, and the yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model is proposed. The method is applied to the nonstationary Poisson model with whole-process exponential increase and stress release model. In addition, the prediction method of stress release model is obtained based on the inverse function simulation method of stochastic variable.[PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
ISSN:1000-9116
1674-4519
1993-1344
1867-8777
DOI:10.1007/s11589-000-0080-1