Simulating the Change in Young Adult Homeownership Through 2035: Effects of Growing Diversity and Rising Educational Attainment

In this article we highlight the scope of public policy and demographic change for the future path of homeownership. In so doing, we review the literature on the scope of impact of certain policy tools, estimate housing tenure choice models that highlight how sensitive households are to various fact...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Housing policy debate 2019-01, Vol.29 (1), p.126-142
Main Authors: Myers, Dowell, Painter, Gary, Zissimopoulos, Julie, Lee, Hyojung, Thunell, Johanna
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adults
Change agents
Computer simulation
Decision making models
Demographic change
Demographics
Education
education attainment
Educational attainment
Ethnicity
Home ownership
Homeownership
Households
Housing
housing policy
Housing tenure
Literature reviews
Minority & ethnic groups
Minority groups
Multiculturalism & pluralism
Policy making
Public policy
Race
simulation
Tenure
Time periods
Wealth
Young adults
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Summary:In this article we highlight the scope of public policy and demographic change for the future path of homeownership. In so doing, we review the literature on the scope of impact of certain policy tools, estimate housing tenure choice models that highlight how sensitive households are to various factors in different time periods to highlight how credit conditions can influence the future path of homeownership, and then simulate the future paths of homeownership in light of prospective changes in young-adult race/ethnicity, education, income, and wealth. The study focuses on prospective changes between 2015 and 2035 to the rate of homeownership among young adults age 25 to 44, prime ages for first-time homebuying. We find that rising education levels-even if minority-white college education gaps were eliminated completely-would only partially reverse the steep declines in young-adult homeownership attainment witnessed since the onset of the housing bust. However, our findings also suggest that the common narrative, which predicts that young-adult homeownership rates will inevitably decline due to increasing racial/ethnic diversity, does not take into account the positive effect of rising educational attainment among minorities on homeownership rates.
ISSN:1051-1482
2152-050X
DOI:10.1080/10511482.2018.1452045